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NCAAF Week 3 Mississippi State at LSU Betting Preview

Tigers Have Some Value as Home Underdogs?

We should have some fireworks in the Mississippi State LSU week 3 matchup that is the SEC opener for both teams. The Bulldogs come into this game airing the ball out at will, with their 385.0 pass yards per game the 5th most in the country and their 44.0 ppg the 12th highest in the nation.

Many of LSU’s offensive numbers are inflated rom last week’s 65-17 win over Southern that was Brian Kelly’s first win with the program. Even so, the Tigers are also averaging 44.0 ppg but are also still +2.5 home underdogs on Saturday night. In what would seem to be a higher scoring game, the total of 53.5 seems low and may be the angle to attack here.

Rogers Commanding the MSU Offense

Will Rogers was one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation last year when he threw for 4,739 yards with 36 TDs against 9 INTs. Many people will credit the Bulldogs’ Air Raid Offense for those numbers, but he still completed an astounding 73.9% of his passes as a sophomore.

Now in his junior year Rogers has continued to show a mastery of Mike Leach’s offense, going 38/49 for 450 yards and 5 TD in a 49-23 win over Memphis and then 39/49 for 313 yards and 4 TDs last week on the road in a 39-17 victory over Arizona. Mississippi State has covered a -17 and a -13 point spread the last two games.

Of course the big question in the Mississippi State LSU week 3 matchup is how the Tigers offense will fare against the pass? There’s almost nothing to take from LSU’s dominance of Southern, but Florida State QB Jordan Travis was 20/32 for 260 yards and 2 TDs in the Seminoles 24-23 win in week one.

Kelly’s SEC Opener

The Brian Kelly era opened up with the 1-point loss to the Seminoles (an extra point that would have tied the game was blocked) and fans were already having buyer’s remorse one game in. That anxiety was calmed a bit last week in the dominating win over Southern but that was expected as a -44.5 point favorite against an FCS opponent.

Arizona State transfer QB Jayden Daniels has been as good as advertised for the Tigers, going 26/35 for 209 yards with 2 TD passes against FSU while adding another 114 on the ground. He used the Southern game to get even more comfortable with Kelly’s system, going 10/11 for 137 and 3 TDs while also scoring a rushing TD.

Mississippi State has had some issues despite the 2-0 start. Memphis scored three TDs in a four possession span in the opener which gives some hope to the LSU offense on Saturday.

Free Mississippi State LSU Week 3 Betting Pick

The side in this game really seems like it could go either way. It would be no shock if LSU had no answer for the Mississippi State Air Raid offense and the Bulldogs pulled off the road win in the SEC opener. Then again, Daniels in his third game in Kelly’s system as well as the home field advantage could easily lead the Tigers to the win. Regardless of how the side plays out, it almost seems like there’s no way a ton of points aren’t put up here.

Free Pick: Over 53.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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