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NCAAF Week 16 Ole Miss at LSU Pick and Betting Preview

Rebels Trying to Go Bowling With a Win

Two teams closing out their regular season schedules meet up in the Ole Miss at LSU pick. Even though neither team has much to play for with the Rebels being 4-4 and Louisiana State 4-5, this Saturday afternoon tilt (3:30 PM ET, SEC Network) has the makings to be explosive with a betting total at a meteoric 74.5.

LSU is a somewhat strange +1.5 home underdog in this meeting, even coming off a shocking 37-34 upset at #7 Florida while getting +24 points. Ole Miss has rattled off three straight wins though, scoring 50+ in two of those. Do we play a side in this one, or just wager on an excessive amount of points being scored?

Ole Miss Eager to Get Back on the Field

The Rebels have a Ferrari offense that is #3 in the country in yards per game. This sports car has been sitting idle since a 31-24 win on November 28th in the Egg Bowl however due to COVID cancellations. Will the time off put Ole Miss out of rhythm, or has it just given Lane Kiffin more time to draw up another 50+ point outing?

Ole Miss does have a lot to play for, as they can become bowl eligible with a win. LSU presents the biggest challenge the Rebels have faced the last three games, as Mississippi has been at least a -9.5 favorite in each tilt over that span.

Giving up just -1.5 points doesn’t seem bad for Ole Miss, even on the road. QB Matt Corral continues his lights out play by going 24/36 for 385 yards and 2 TD last week. Corral has 12 TDs to 0 INT the last three weeks, and will be facing an LSU defense that allowed 474 yards to Kyle Trask last week.

Can LSU Get Up One More Time?

It’s been a disappointing season for the defending national champions as LSU is out of bowl contention with a 4-5 record. The Tigers never feasibly had a chance at a repeat after dropping 3 of their first 5 games of 2020, but showed how great they can still be when games matter when spoiling Florida’s season with a 37-34 road win last week.

LSU’s defense actually stepped up a bit last week, recording 4 sacks and forcing three Florida turnovers. That side of the ball has seen its share of scrutiny for LSU, as they have the 3rd worst defense in the SEC. Auburn has also put up 48 and Alabama 55 points vs. the Tigers over the five games leading up to the Florida meeting, so it should be another big day for Ole Miss.

Of course the Tigers seem poised to get theirs on offense on Saturday as well. Despite their win in the Egg Bowl, the Rebels defense allowed a 440 yard passing day to MSU freshman Will Rogers. For as bad as the LSU defense has been at times, Ole Miss is last in the SEC in total yards and rush yards allowed.

Free Ole Miss at LSU Pick

The LSU defense is worst in the SEC in pass yards allowed, which isn’t good heading into a game with the high powered Ole Miss offense. Kiffin knows the importance of making a bowl in his first year with the Rebels, and will pull out all the stops to get this huge road win, especially after having a couple extra weeks to come up with more offensive wrinkles.
Ole Miss 45 – LSU 38

Free Pick: Mississippi -1.5


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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