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NCAAF Week 12 Ohio at Ball State Betting Preview

Bobcats Go For Six in a Row

The Ohio Bobcats (7-3, 5-1 MAC) are nearing in on a MAC East crown but they can’t officially clinch a tip to Ford Field with a win. That being said, if the Bobcats can pick up a win in the Ohio at Ball State betting matchup and then Bowling Green does indeed lose at Toledo as +16.5 underdogs also at 7:00 PM ET on TOhuesday then Tim Albin is taking his team to Detroit in just his second season at the helm.

Ball State (5-5, 3-3) can play the spoiler and they will likely try to do so with their long-locked RB Carson Steele who has 1,305 yards and 12 TDs on the season. The Bobcats give up yardage in bunches, so maybe the Cardinals +3.5 in their home finale for 2022 is the way to go here.

Ohio Passing Game Too Much?

Albin was the obvious choice to take over as head coach when Frank Solich retired prior to the 2021 season. Albin had spent 15+ years as the Ohio OC, and with absolute full control he’s really opened things up especially in the passing game. The Bobcats lead the MAC with 314.7 yards/game through the air and add a respectable 129.9 on the ground.

The driver of this passing offense is Kurtis Rourke who is 7th in the country with 3,087 yards to go with 24 TDs against just 4 INTs. Rourke is a junior in his second full season running Albin’s offense and he’s showed a great command, competing 68.1% of his passes while throwing 13TDs to just 2 INTs on Ohio’s current 5-game win streak.

Ohio is finally getting some love as -3.5 road favorites considering they were underdogs in three of the last four on their winning streak. The Bobcats are 2-3 on the road this season, but those losses came against power 5 schools Penn State (48-10 L) and Iowa State (43-10 L) as +27.5 and +19.5 underdogs respectively. Their other road loss was 31-24 at Kent State in OT as +13 point underdogs.

Ball State Can Keep Ohio Off the Field

The Cardinals have the second best pass defense in the MAC (217.3) but that also might be because they are the worst team against the run in the conference (184.4). Either way it would behoove Mike Neu’s team to keep the Bobcats off the field in Ohio at Ball State betting on Tuesday night.

The Cardinals have the weapon to eat up the clock and control time of possession and he comes straight out of central casting in RB Carson Steele. Steele is a workhorse whose 249 carries are the third most in the country and his 1,280 yards are the fourth most in the nation. Steele has topped the century mark in 8 of 10 games this season but Ohio has a top 5 rush defense in the MAC.

The way you can get to Oho is through the air, as they are last in the MAC and fourth worst in the nation in passing yards allowed. Some of that is also to blame on the Bobcats offense though, as they get such big leads teams are forced to throw the ball. Ball State QB John Paddock completed just 13/35 passes last week in a 7-point loss at Toledo.

Free Ohio at Ball State Betting Pick

Steele is fun to watch and the Ball State crowd is going to show up on a Tuesday night in the regular season finale. Just 53% of the public like Ohio on the road in this spot, but they’ve rattled off five wins in a row – three of them as underdogs. The margin of victory in the last two Bobcats wins is 16.5 ppg.

Free Pick: Ohio -3.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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