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NCAA Week 10 West Virginia at Baylor Free Pick

#11 Bears Looking to Impress When Hosting Mountaineers on Thursday.

You couldn’t ask for much more from the home team heading into the NCAA week 10 West Virginia at Baylor free pick. The #11 Bears have knocked down whatever the schedule makers have set up so far, boasting a perfect 7-0 record. Thursday offers a great opportunity for Baylor to show off their wares in front of a national ESPN audience. The Mountaineers are +18.5 underdogs on the road in Waco. Does WVU have value considering they won last year’s matchup by 44 points?

West Virginia on a Slide – But In a Must Win

NCAA week 10 West Virginia at Baylor free pick
Can the Oklahoma transfer Kendall engineer an upset like his former school saw last week?

The year started off promising for the Mountaineers. WVU began the year 3-1 with the signature win being a 44-27 victory over NC State as +7 home underdogs. There were signs that there were some cracks in the foundation early though when Neal Brown’s team fell 7-38 at Missouri in week 2, albeit as +13.5 underdogs.

Those cracks in the foundation have become full on flooding heading into the NCAA week 10 West Virginia at Baylor free pick. The Mountaineers have lost three straight and by a combined score of 132-59. Granted, those losses came against quality teams in Texas, Iowa State, and at Oklahoma – but Baylor is no slouch either. The reason Thursday night’s tilt becomes a must-win is because a loss would inch closer to missing bowl eligibility for just the second time since 2001.

So how does WVU stay in this one? Well the Mountaineers have to somehow slow down a very balanced Baylor offense. By the way, West Virginia has the worst scoring defense in the Big 12 and one of the least efficient in the country allowing 33.4 points per game. West Virginia can take solace that they’ve won three in a row over Baylor including a 58-14 win last year in Morgantown. Will Grier (353, 3 TD) isn’t walking through that door though as Austin Kendall threw for just 182 yards in West Virginia’s last game.

Is Baylor Ready for Success?

NCAA week 10 West Virginia at Baylor free pick
Brewer has Baylor atop the Big 12 with a 7-0 record.

It was just two years ago that Waco was home to a 1-11 football team so you can bet the Bears aren’t going to overlook any opponent heading into the NCAA week 10 West Virginia at Baylor free pick. Baylor (as well as West Virginia) had a bye last week, but as the Bears were enjoying a weekend off, Oklahoma fell to Kansas which boosted Matt Ruhle’s team to the top of the Big 12 standings.

The Bears are a lofty -18.5 favorite on Thursday which in all honesty may be a bit on the high side. Baylor has been great in running off a 7-0 record, but they’ve been in some close gamesĀ  in the last five wins. The run started with an 8 point win at Rice on September 21st. The other wins since then include a 23-21 upset at home vs. Iowa State, winning at Kansas State 31-12 as a -1 pick, squeaking out a 33-30 OT home win vs. Texas Tech, Then again, Baylor won their first two games of the season by a combined score of 119 – 31.

Baylor is not only coming into Thursday’s game with West Virginia off of a bye, the week before they had their most impressive win of the season in a 45-27 victory at Oklahoma State in which the Bears were +5.5 underdogs. Baylor ran for 224 yards and 4 TD in that game led by JaMycal Hasty who had 146 yards. Junior QB Charlie Brewer isn’t flashy but he does have three 300+ yard games this season. Brewer threw 3 INTs against Texas Tech – but they were also his only three INTs the whole season (7 games).

NCAA Week 10 West Virginia at Baylor Free Pick

Baylor had a stretch there where they were squeaking out some close games so the -18.5 looks pretty lofty. Then again, a couple of the Bears wins were upsets and they have covered a -25 spread this season. The big question is if Baylor can handle the newfound pressure of sitting atop the Big 12? Not only that, does the huge spread lean the Bears towards looking ahead to TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas which are the next three opponents on the schedule. WVU doesn’t have the talent they’ve had in the past, but are fighting for their postseason lives and have had a week to prepare for this one.

Pick: West Virginia +18.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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