It’s the Big 10 vs. the SEC when the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl kicks off at 1:30 ET on Friday. 7-5 Auburn (-3.5) is gaining a majority of the public betting numbers vs. 6-6 Purdue. The O/U of 57.5 is the real intriguing play in this contest however. It’s the Boilermakers top 10 passing offense vs. a Tigers defense that was 18th in the nation in points allowed. Anything can happen in the college football ‘postseason’ so which way does the 2018 Alamo Bowl free pick fall?
What Will Purdue’s Brohm Draw Up With So Much Prep Time?
Boilermakers coach Jeff Brohm is an offensive guru whose team averaged over 30 ppg scoring during the 2018 season. As expected, the former Louisville and XFL quarterback is especially adept at the passing game which went for 317.8 ypg during the year. David Blough is the Sr. QB that orchestrates this offense. He has 7 games of 300+ yards passing this year including 572 vs. Missouri and 378 and 3TD vs. Ohio State. Coach Brohm set a goal of 50 trick plays to run during the season and although the team fell short, expect some razzle dazzle in the 2018 Alamo Bowl free pick.
— Jeff Brohm (@JeffBrohm) December 28, 2018
The Purdue offense can put up some points, but they’ve got a great test vs. the Auburn defense. The Tigers allowed just 222 ypg through the air this season and opponents scored under 20 ppg. Auburn did give up 52 points and 500 total yards (377 passing) to Alabama in the Iron Bowl and 522 yards to Georgia two games prior. Those are elite teams, but it shows the Tigers can be gotten to on defense.
Will Auburn Rely on Their Ground Attack?
While the Iron Bowl was a blowout, Auburn did rush for 130 yards in that game vs. a solid Alabama rush defense. Grinding it out is going to be the Tigers M.O in the 2018 Music City Bowl free pick as well. The Tigers threw the ball 32 times vs. Georgia, but only for 172 yards. QB Jarrett Stidham has thrown for less than 180 yards in three straight games and threw only 13 TD in 12 games this season. Auburn was held to 21 points or less in five games this year but Purdue has allowed 35+ in three of four.
The Tigers feature four RB’s that have scored at least 3TD this year. JaTarvious Whitlow leads the way with 777 yards on the ground but he has 65 or less in 7 of the last 9. Ultimately it doesn’t look like Auburn has the offense to hang with Purdue. Then again the Boilers’ defense gave up 385 yards rushing to Wisconsin and and 265 on 41 carries to Minnesota a game prior in week 10.
2018 Music City Bowl Free Pick O/U Betting
Two of the most creative minds in college football square off today when Jeff Brohm and Gus Malzahn meet up at the Music City Bowl. Is that automatically going to mean a lot of points are scored though? For as potent as the Purdue offense is, they were held to 13 points vs. Michigan State and 10 vs. Minnesota over the last 5 weeks of the season. Auburn is going to try and run the ball and their defense has had over a month to prep for the Boilermakers passing game. Ultmately, this should all add up to a lower scoring game than expected.
Music City Bowl Free Pick: Under 57.5