There’s a lot going on in the November 19th NBA free pick. First off Dallas is just 1-6 on the road up against a Memphis team that has gone 6-1 at home this season. That being said, the Mavs have won four games in a row and 5 of their last 6 while the Grizzlies are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight. Memphis is listed as a -3 favorite despite the fatigue factor, but can the Mavericks start to play better on the road?
Dallas Playing Great Defense Recently
The total for the November 19th NBA free pick is 202, very low considering the high volume of scoring across the league this season. The Grizzlies feature one of the better defenses in the league but Dallas has matched that efficiently lately holding 4 of their last 6 opponents to 100 points or less. The Mavs took down Golden State 112-109 on Saturday and destroyed Utah 118-68 the game before that. The Mavs have a defensive efficiency of .879 over their last three games and should be able to ramp the intensity up against a Memphis team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights tonight.
Will the Dallas offense contribute to a low scoring game in the November 19th NBA free pick? The odds would say that the Mavs actually should be able to put up some solid offensive numbers on Monday. Dallas has scored 110+ in 4 of the last 6 and rank 11th in the league in offensive efficiency this season. Rookie Luka Doncic has scored 22+ in 4 of the last 6 games. Harrison Barnes has scored 23 in two of the last three games and DeAndre Jordan has double digit rebounds in all but one game this season. With Marc Gasol logging 36 minutes vs. Minnesota last night, Jordan should be able to have a big game down low for the Mavs.
Can Memphis Defend Their Home Court Even In a Back-to-Back?
The Grizzlies have gone 6-1 at home this season and have the #4 defensive efficiency in the league when playing at FedEx Forum this year. That being said, tonight will be Memphis’ third game in four nights. The Grizzlies have won 5 of their last 6 but have been quite the jetsetters over the past week. Since last Wednesday Memphis has played in Milwaukee, back home to host Sacramento, then off to Minnesota yesterday before coming back to play Dallas tonight. No matter how well you play at home, that’s a tough tour. On the flip side, in the last 7 days the Mavs have played two home games before making the 1-1/2 hour flight to Memphis.
If the Grizzlies do run their winning streak to four games who is going to lead the way? Not only did Marc Gasol play 36 minutes yesterday at the Timberwolves, Mike Conley logged 35, Garrett Temple 33 and Kyle Anderson 31. Memphis did go pretty deep as 11 players got into the game vs. Minnesota but the usage was very heavy at the top for a team that has a back-to-back tonight. The Memphis offense was already struggling to score at 103.3 ppg (28th) but how will those concerns grow with fatigue involved? Not only that, how will the Grizzlies #1 defense (100.3 ppg) find the intensity to control a talented Mavs offense?
November 19th NBA Free Pick Betting
Tonight features a solid home team vs. a struggling road team with a back-to-back situation thrown in the mix for good measure. The points are very appealing but the betting public doesn’t seem to be phased as 55-60% are liking the Grizzlies despite any potential fatigue factors. Dallas is just too fresh and playing too well lately however. Yes the Mavs are in a potential let down spot after beating the Warriors outright Saturday but they are in a great spot for another victory tonight.
NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks +3.5