The New York Mets return to Citi Field to begin a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET. The Mets are 48-37 and strong at home with a 29-12 record. Milwaukee enters at 47-37, sitting just one game behind in the NL wild-card standings.
New York just came off a rough road trip, losing three straight to Pittsburgh by a combined score of 30-4. The offense has not produced much, especially with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee has won eight of its last ten and is averaging nearly eight runs per game over that stretch. This is the first meeting between these teams since October 2024, when the Mets won 4-2 in Milwaukee.
Mets Preview – Looking to Snap Skid at Home
The Mets are 3-13 over their last 16 games. They lost all three games in Pittsburgh and were outscored 30-4 in the series. The team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in the NL at .217 through Sunday.
Clay Holmes starts for New York. He’s 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA but has struggled with walks. In his last two starts against Atlanta, he walked 10 batters in under 10 innings. Holmes has a 1-3 record with a 6.64 ERA in 17 career appearances versus the Brewers, most of them in relief.
New York’s bullpen has been steady overall with a 3.56 ERA. Edwin Diaz has been sharp with a 2.03 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. But several relievers are hurt, including Max Kranick and A.J. Minter, putting more pressure on Diaz and Reed Garrett late in games.
Brewers Preview – Rolling Behind Big Offense
Milwaukee has been one of the best teams in the National League over the last two weeks. They’ve won eight of ten and scored 7.8 runs per game over that span. Christian Yelich and Brice Turang both carry hitting streaks longer than 12 games, and each is hitting over .400 during that run.
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers. He’s 8-4 with a 2.90 ERA, just ahead of Holmes in the NL ERA rankings. Peralta has done well against the Mets in three career starts, going 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings. He’s walked just one batter in his last two outings and has gone at least five innings in each of his last five starts.
Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks among the league leaders with a 2.74 ERA. The group has limited walks and home runs well. Key arms like Trevor Megill, Nick Mears, and Abner Uribe have all delivered solid innings in recent weeks, giving Milwaukee an edge late in games.
Betting Prediction
The Mets are -140 on the moneyline with a total of 8.0 runs. While New York is strong at home, their offense is struggling, especially with runners in scoring position. Holmes has a good ERA but too many walks, which could open the door for a dangerous Milwaukee lineup.
Milwaukee is a strong value at +120. They’ve covered the run line in 26 of their last 37 road games in the first five innings and have hit the F5 moneyline in 40 of 80 games overall. With Peralta pitching well and the Mets in a slump, Milwaukee looks like the better side to back. A 5-3 win for the Brewers is a fair projection.
Pick: Brewers +120
