The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Great American Ball Park to begin a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday afternoon. First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET. The Blue Jays enter at 79-58 overall after an 8-4 win over Milwaukee on Sunday, while the Reds come in 69-68 following a 7-4 victory over St. Louis. Both clubs sit in the thick of the playoff hunt with Toronto in the American League wild card race and Cincinnati chasing the final National League wild card spot.
The last time these two teams met was in August 2024, when Cincinnati took an 11-7 game in Toronto. The Reds have won six of the last ten head-to-head meetings, but Toronto has often kept games tight, with four of the last six matchups decided by three runs or fewer. With two right-handed starters set to take the mound in Chris Bassitt and Hunter Greene, this opener could be decided by which rotation arm handles the pressure better.
Reds Preview – Greene on the Hill
Hunter Greene gets the ball for Cincinnati. The 26-year-old has a 5-4 record with a 2.81 ERA and a strikeout-heavy approach. He is coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers, where he allowed five runs (three earned) across five innings, including two home runs. Greene has struggled in his career against Toronto with a 0-1 record and a 9.00 ERA in two prior starts.
As a team, the Reds average 4.46 runs per game while giving up 4.22. The lineup is led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, both of whom have provided much-needed power in recent weeks. McLain has homered in back-to-back games, while Austin Hays also added a key home run in Sunday’s win. Cincinnati has also promoted top prospect Sal Stewart, who could give the infield a lift and bring extra depth to the batting order.
Cincinnati’s bullpen has been solid, carrying a 3.69 ERA across 373.1 innings with 372 strikeouts. Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan have been reliable late-inning arms, while Brent Suter has eaten innings from the left side. Injuries remain an issue, with key relievers like Ian Gibaut and starters like Corbin Burns and Graham Ashcraft sidelined. Still, the Reds’ 37-31 record at home shows they’ve found ways to win despite the roster challenges.
Blue Jays Preview – Bassitt Seeks a Clean Start
Chris Bassitt is on the mound for Toronto. The veteran right-hander has had mixed results of late, going 1-4 in his last five outings with a 3.67 ERA. He averages just over five innings per start and has allowed at least two runs in each of his last four appearances. Against Cincinnati, Bassitt is 2-1 lifetime with a 2.08 ERA, but he has not faced them since August 2023, when he gave up three runs over six innings in a win.
The Blue Jays’ offense has been powered by George Springer and Bo Bichette since the All-Star break. Springer is batting .390 over his last 100 at-bats with eight home runs, while Bichette is hitting .359 in his last 170 at-bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also provides middle-of-the-order pop, with prop projections showing him above 0.5 RBIs and 1.5 total bases for this matchup. Toronto’s lineup has produced 4.93 runs per game this season, one of the better marks in the American League.
On the pitching side, Toronto’s bullpen has been a steady force with a 3.67 ERA across 438.2 innings. Seranthony Dominguez and Yariel Rodriguez have been effective in relief, while Brendon Little and Louis Varland have been dependable depth arms. Injuries remain a problem for Toronto, with Anthony Santander, Alek Manoah, and several relievers out long-term. Even so, the Jays sit 34-34 on the road and remain dangerous against National League opponents, especially when Springer and Bichette are producing.
Betting Prediction
The odds show Cincinnati favored at -125, while Toronto comes in at +105. The run line has Toronto -1.5 at +165 and Cincinnati +1.5 at -220. The total is set at 8.0 runs, with the Over priced at -130 and the Under at -102. Trends point to the Under, as the Reds have gone Under in 78 of their last 132 games. Toronto, however, has been a solid moneyline play, winning 63 of its last 101 games.
This game should be close, with Greene holding the edge in recent form, but Bassitt has the stronger track record against Cincinnati. The Reds’ home record and urgency in the wild card chase make them slightly more appealing as the favorite. Toronto’s lineup is dangerous, but if Greene keeps Springer and Bichette in check, the Reds can take this one. A projected score of Reds 4, Blue Jays 3 points to Cincinnati on the moneyline and a lean to the Under 8.0.
Pick: Reds -125
