The line in the September 22nd Mets at Red Sox game has dropped a bit, with Boston opening as -183 favorites and being bet down to -164. Anything under -200 would seem like value for the Sox in a Chris Sale (4-0, 2.40 ERA) start, but the fact that the line is moving in the different direction does perk the ears up a bit.
Boston took the opener 6-3 on Tuesday as -130 favorites even though it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to be looking forward to the Yankees series at Fenway this weekend. The victory was the sixth straight for the Red Sox, a run that has pushed them to a 1.5 game lead in the top AL wild card spot. The Mets are all but eliminated facing a 7-game deficit in the NL East with 11 to play.
New York Seems to Have Given Up
The Mets did come into this quick 2-game series at Fenway Park off a 3-2 win over the Phillies on Sunday and a day off Monday. Ultimately the momentum and the rest didn’t matter though, with the Mets falling 6-3 on Tuesday despite Marcus Stroman and his sub 3.00 ERA on the mound.
Pete Alonso did hit his 34th HR of the season on Tuesday night but that was about the gist of it for the Mets offense. New York has now dropped 6 of their last 7 games over the most crucial part of the season, and over that span the Mets have been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of those tilts. That run doesn’t breed a lot of optimism heading into the September 22nd Mets at Red Sox matchup against Chris Sale.
Stroman went 5.0 innings giving up 4 ER on Tuesday, but manager Luis Rojas is hoping for a better outing from Taijuan Walker (7-10, 4.27 ERA) on Wednesday. That could be a lot to ask for though as New York has lost in 9 of the last 10 times Walker has taken the hill. Walker also has a 5.18 ERA in 13 road starts this year.
Sale Day at Fenway
Boston being just a -164 favorite in a Chris Sale start almost seems like a red flag. The lanky lefty has only made six starts since returning from Tommy John surgery but has been priced at -260 or better in four of those outings. Sale has allowed 8 total runs in six starts, but only throwing 90+ pitches once and only getting through the 6th inning once as well.
Sale is going to give you his 4-5 innings of minimal run ball, and in that time the Red Sox offense should be able to get to Walker. Boston has scored 6+ runs in six straight games, led by Xander Bogaerts who had 4 RBI in Tuesday’s win. Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec, and Enrique Hernandez are all Boston starters who have better than a .500 OBP over the past week.
September 22nd Mets at Red Sox Pick
There’s always the possibility that Boston is looking ahead to the Yankees series this weekend, but there aren’t many better options than Sale on the hill with a solid Red Sox offense behind his back. The line going down is weird, but Boston wins this one big.
Red Sox 5 – Mets 2
Free Pick: Red Sox -1.5