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MLB Tuesday July 4th Mets at Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Evenly Priced Matchup at Chase Field

The July 4th Mets at Diamondbacks betting matchup is a nice precursor to fireworks in the desert on Independence Day (4:10 PM ET, MLB Network). Both teams had Monday off following weekend series wins, so each comes in with some decent momentum.

Tuesday’s series opener is fairly evenly priced, with the Mets drawing a slight -115 favorite tag (ARI -105). New York would seem to have the pitching edge on paper with Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.53 ERA) facing off against Zach Davies (1-4, 6.54 ERA) but 55% of public betting is on the 1st place Diamondbacks.

Why the Mets Have Value Tuesday

New York has to have some momentum after finally winning a series last weekend while taking two of three at home against the Giants. It had been a bit for the Mets, who hadn’t taken a series basically in a month after their sweep of the Phillies from May 30th – June 1st.

New York can get off to a good start to claim their second series in a row mostly because they are facing Davies in the July 4th Mets at Diamondbacks betting matchup. The Arizona starter is coming off 7.0 IP of shutout ball against the Rays, but he had allowed 18 ER over his previous three starts in just 10.2 IP.

The Mets counter Davies with Senga, who is still adjusting to life in MLB as a 30-year-old rookie from Japan. The right-hander seems to be getting comfortable though, allowing 2 ER or less in three of his last four starts.

Why the Diamondbacks Have Value Tuesday

Arizona took two of three against the Angels last weekend, all as underdogs. What’s even more impressive is that they won the series even with Corbin Carroll taking just one pinch hit AB as he rested a sore shoulder. Carroll, the phenomenal rookie who was just named a starter for the NL in the All-Star game is expected to be back in the starting lineup on Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks (50-35) seem to be legit, and any time the 1st place team in the NL West is priced at just -105 they have to be worth a look. That’s especially true against a Mets team that is just 8-19 in their last 27 overall, 8-22 in their last 30 road games, 3-8 in their last 11 after an off day, and 2-7 in their last 9 series openers.

Tuesday’s game all relies on how Davies pitches. He was splendid against one of the best offenses in baseball on Wednesday holding the Rays to just 2 hits over 7.0 IP and that’s definitely a performance to build on. That being said Arizona also lost that game 3-2, the 5th time they’ve tasted defeat in Davies’ last 7 starts.

Free July 4th Mets at Diamondbacks Betting Pick

It’s hard to back Davies at any time, and so far last Tuesday’s outing against Tampa Bay seems like an anomaly. The Mets aren’t exactly tearing things up recently though, going just 7-19 in June. Ultimately you trust Senga just a bit more than Davies here.

Free Pick: Mets -115

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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