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UFC on ESPN 11 Prelims Betting

Another Action Packed Night of MMA from the Apex in Las Vegas

It’s a Saturday reminiscent of pre-Covid times for sports bettors with a full arsenal of soccer, auto racing, golf, and horses culminating with UFC on ESPN 11 prelims betting. It’s a huge preliminary card from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas featuring 7 fights. Let’s see how they break down:

Max Rohskopf (-200) vs. Austin Hubbard +160
Lightweight

UFC on ESPN 11 betting kicks off with the undefeated Max Rohskopf (5-0) trying to improve on that record vs. Austin Hubbard (11-4). This will be Rohskopf’s UFC debut, but he’s also taking it on just a week’s notice after Hubbard was originally slated to face Joe Solecki.

Hubbard will be making his 4th fight in the UFC and has struggled with grapplers similar to the former NC State wrestler Rohskopf. Hubbard has a 1-2 record – all by decision – but all of Rohskopf’s wins have come by finish.
Pick: Fight does not complete 2 full rounds (Even)

Roxanne Modafferi (-115) vs. Lauren Murphy -115
Women’s Flyweight

#6 and #7 in the women’s flyweight rankings meet up when Roxanne Modafferi (24-16) gets set to meet Lauren Murphy (12-4). Modafferi’s 30 fights of experience definitely stands out in this one, but oddsmakers are calling it a toss-up with both women at -115.

“Lucky” Murphy is on a 2-fight win streak, most recently a decision victory in February. Modafferi has split wins and losses in her last six, the last being a victory in January. Four straight Modafferri fights have gone to a decision (fight to go the distance -300). Two of Murphy’s last four wins have come via a KO, but you have to think the seasoned Modafferi avoids that fate. Even so, the finishing option for Lucky is out there.
Pick: Lauren Murphy -115

Frank Camacho (-335) vs. Justin Jaynes (+255)
Lightweight

Frank Camacho (22-8) is the biggest favorite in the UFC on ESPN 11 prelims betting card.  It would look like the 15-4 Justin Jaynes has value on Saturday then, especially with a +255 payout. Camacho has also lost 3 of his lasts 4 fights, most recently a 1st round submission last October.

So how bad must Jaynes be to be that big of an underdog? This will be the UFC debut for the 30-year-old who has won his last four MMA fights by 1st round stoppage. Jaynes has been victorious in 9 of his last 10 overall but is a very late replacement for Matt Frevola.
Pick: Under 1.5 rounds -110

Gillian Robertson (-120) vs. Cortney Casey (-110)
Women’s Flyweight

There’s early-ending potential when Gillian Robertson (7-4) meets up with Cortney Casey (9-7 Saturday. All 6 of Robertson’s UFC fights have ended in the 2nd round or earlier, 4 of them wins for ‘the Savage.’

Casey is also coming off a 1st round submission win back in May which earned her Performance of the Night. ‘Cast Iron’ is more of a grappler though having six consecutive fights go to a decision before that. That proves Casey doesn’t have the finishing capabilities overall as her opponent in this one.
Pick: Gillian Robertson -120

UFC fight night 173 prelims betting
Robertson vs. Casey is one of the closer contested matches in Saturday’s prelims.

Oskar Piechota (-110) vs. Marc-Andre Barnault (-120)
Middleweight

Oddsmakers are calling the UFC on ESPN 11 prelims betting bout between Oskar Piechota (11-3-1) and Marc-Andre Barnault (11-4-1) a close one. The value is hard to find in this one as the fighters have combined to lose 6 straight bouts.

Piechota is on a 3-fight losing streak, not making it out of the 2nd round in three straight finishing defeats. Piechota started his UFC career off strong going 2-0 including a 1st round SUB of Tim Williams but is in a rut. Barnault is still looking for his first UFC win, although all three of his losses have gone to decision. Neither fighter has takedown capabilities so this one will be won on the feet. Piechota’s slight striking advantage (55% to 43%) gives him the edge.
Pick: Oskar Piechota -110

Brianna Van Buren (-225) vs. Tecia Torres (+175)
Women’s Strawweight

Tecia Torres (10-5) definitely has the elite competition advantage on Saturday as she partakes in her 12th UFC fight. Experience is one thing, but underperformance in the ring has been Torres’ downfall lately as she has dropped four straight fights all by decision.

Brianna Van Buren (9-2) is a lofty favorite for UFC on ESPN 11 betting despite being in just her 2nd UFC fight. Van Buren was impressive in a U-decision win but that was nearly a year ago last July. Torres hasn’t fought since August though but she ran a gauntlet of quality competition prior to that. Torres’ experience leads to the upset.
Pick: Torres +175

Bobby Green (-270) vs. Clay Guida (+210)

Bobby Green (24-10-1) seems like an absurd -270 favorite in his matchup against fellow experienced fighter Clay Guida (35-19). Green is 5 years younger than the 38-year-old Guida but has been ravaged by injuries on the back 9 of his career. Green fought just once in 2019 and had nearly 11 months between fights in 2018. Overall Green has 6 of his last 7.

Make no mistake, Guida hasn’t exactly been tearing up the octagon after 1st round submission losses in 2 of his last 3. Green doesn’t have a submission win since 2013 though and Guida has actually won 3 of his last 5. Great return on Guida at that price.
Pick: Guida +210

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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