There’s some value on the home team in the May 2nd Marlins at Nationals matchup. Washington sends Max Scherzer (1-2, 3.00 ERA) to the bump as just -140 favorites. The Nationals are also riding a 3-game win streak, including 2-1 and 7-2 victories over Miami so far.
Is there any reason to even consider Miami +130 on Sunday afternoon? This game wraps up a long 10-game road trip for the Marlins, who are likely ready to get back home for the first time in nearly two weeks. Miami is a decent 7-8 on the road, but Washington is 7-5 at Nationals Park this season.
Marlins Fall on Getaway Day?
It’s been somewhat of a rough road trip for the Marlins, who are 3-6 heading into their 10th straight game away from South Beach. They had scored 3+ runs in six straight games, but have managed just 3 total over the first two games of the series in Washington.
Miami didn’t score any runs over 5.0 IP against Jon Lester on Friday, and managed just 2 in 7.0 IP against Patrick Corbin on Saturday afternoon. It’s not looking like things get any easier against Scherzer in the series finale. Miguel Rojas has the most experience vs. the Washington starter (9-32, .281) but Corey Dickerson has the most success (4-9, 1 HR). Miami as a team has hit .236 vs. Scherzer (21-89).
Miami sends Trevor Rogers (3-1, 1.29 ERA) to the bump in what may be a solid pitcher’s matchup. The run total is just 7 for the May 2nd Marlins at Nationals matchup, as Rogers hasn’t allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 starts. No Washington batters have ever faced Rogers, who will be making his 13th career start on Sunday.
Nats and Scherzer the Play?
Washington is just -141 on Sunday, which seems low for a Max Scherzer start. That being said the right-hander did look human last time out, allowing 5ER on 8 hits including 2HR in a 9-5 loss to the Blue Jays.
So which is the real Scherzer, the guy who got rocked by Toronto or the one who allowed just 1 ER over 19.0 IP with 24 K’s over three starts prior? Scherzer did post a 3+ ERA for the first time in six seasons last year, so we may be seeing the 36-year old on the decline of his career. Scherzer had a 4ER and a 0 ER outing in two starts vs. the Marlins last season.
Washington’s offense is also in the rubber match, scoring just 2 runs on Friday but 7 on Saturday. The Nats have now plated 5+ runs in 4 of the last 6, and seem to be heating up even with Juan Soto (shoulder) sidelined. Trea Turner and Josh Harrison are both hitting better than .444 over the past week to lead the charge.
Free May 2nd Marlins at Nationals Pick
You have to go with Scherzer and the Nats here. The price is decent, the Washington offense seems to be coming around, and Miami is ready to get back home as they wrap up a 10 game road swing.
Nationals 6 – Marlins 3
Free Pick: Nationals -140