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MLB Saturday March 30th Braves at Phillies Betting Preview

Atlanta Looks to Build Off of Successful Opening Day

It definitely wasn’t revenge, but Atlanta did get an Opening Day win over Philadelphia and look for more heading into the March 30th Braves at Phillies betting matchup. Atlanta has won the NL East for six straight years now, but have been knocked out in the NLDS 3-1 by their division rival Philadelphia in each of the last two seasons.

Atlanta won the series opener 9-3 as -133 favorites in a Spencer Strider vs Zach Wheeler pitching matchup. Oddsmakers have stayed consistent, listing the Braves at -134 when Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA) meets Aaron Nola (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Philadelphia is +114 on the underdog ML.

Why the Braves Have Value on Saturday

Atlanta looked pretty good in Thursday’s season opener, covering the O/U of 7 by themselves while scoring 9 runs on 13 hits. Ronald Acuna, Jr. Matt Olson (3 doubles on his 30th birthday), Michael Harris II, and Orlando Arcia all had multi-hit games out of the chute while the Braves pitching staff held the Phillies to just 5 hits.

The Braves square off against Nola in game two of the series on Saturday. That should mean another big day for Acuna, Jr. who has hit .346 in his career with 4 HRs vs the Philadelphia starter. Austin Riley was 0-4 on Opening Day, but has hit .386 with 5 HRs in his career against Nola.

Fried makes his 2024 season debut after going 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA last season but in just 14 starts thanks to three different stints on the injured list. Fried suffered forearm and hamstring strains last year as well as a problematic reoccurring blister but a long offseason should have him nice and healthy.

Why the Phillies Have Value on Saturday

The Philadelphia offense didn’t do much on Thursday with the top four of the order going 0-14, but they were also facing Strider who was 4th in AL Cy Young Award voting a season ago. Brandon Marsh did have a two run HR vs Strider while Alec Bohm had a multi-hit game so there are some positives.

We will see if the top of the Phillies order can get going in game two vs Fried. While Kyle Schwarber is just a .120 career hitter with 10 K’s in 25 ABs vs the Braves starter, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner are all better than .300 career hitters vs Fried. Nick Castellanos also crushes Fried over his career hitting 9-14 (.643).

Nola reportedly turned down more money elsewhere in the offseason, instead returning to Philadelphia on a 7-year, $172 million extension. Nola was 12-9 last season – his most wins since 2019 – and he shut out the Braves over 6.0 IP allowing just 2 hits in the only start he had against Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park.

Free March 30th Braves at Phillies Betting Pick

This feels like a game where Philadelphia evens up the series. Their top of the order was able to get the Opening Day jitters out of the way on Thursday and the Phillies’ big bats traditionally hit Fried very well.

Free Pick: Phillies +114
Free Pick: Over 8

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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