There seems to be some good value on the home team in the June 19th Marlins at Cubs betting matchup. Miami tallied a dominating 10-2 win in the series opener, but Chicago is 24-11 at Wrigley Field on the season and are 10-2 in their last 12 as a home favorite.
The Cubs are just -125 favorites in Saturday’s matchup, mostly because starter Jake Arrieta (5-7, 5.14 ERA) has been extremely inconsistent as of late. The right-hander has a 7.47 ERA in his last four outings, but Miami starter Pablo Lopez (2-4, 3.12 ERA) lasted just 3.0 IP in his last performance. The ball was flying out of the park on Friday night, and the weather for game 2 is forecast at 85 degrees with an 11 MPH wind out to right. Time to just play the ‘over’ of 9?
Marlins Want More of That Offense
Miami had lost six straight road games to a team with a winning record prior to Friday night’s 10-2 offensive explosion. Adam Duvall did a majority of that damage, cracking out his 5th career grand slam and adding a 2-run shot for good measure to finish 3-4 with 6 RBI and 3 runs scored. Jon Berti also added a three run HR for Miami.
The big question heading into the June 19th Marlins at Cubs matchup is if Miami can produce offensively again or if Friday was an anomaly? The Marlins managed just 3 total runs in getting swept at St. Louis the series prior, and had been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of 12 road games before Friday night’s tilt. Miami is 14-25 away from Marlins Park this season.
Regardless of their road woes, the Marlins have some value at +105 behind Lopez on the bump. The right-hander should be fresh after going just 3.0 IP in his last start vs. the Braves, and had held opponents to 2 ER or less in his five starts prior. Only four active Cubs batters have ever faced the Miami starter, going 2-10 (.200) as a team.
Bounce Back for Cubbies?
Friday was supposed to be a nice homecoming for Chicago, who managed to salvage a win in their four game set with the Mets thanks to a 2-0 win on Thursday. The rare Friday night game at Wrigley Field must have got to the Cubs though, as their two runs came off a couple of Joc Pederson solo HRs.
Will the Cubs get their offense going in what is expected to be another hitter friendly day on the North Side? Chicago is now 20-6 in their last 26 home games, and is 14-6 in their last 20 vs. a RH starter. That being said, David Ross’ team is struggling on offense, being held to 2 runs or less in 5 of the last 6.
Arrieta is another concern for Chicago on the mound. The 35-year-old gave up 4 ER in 5.0 IP to the Mets in his last start, cancelling all the good grace he had built up from 5.0 IP of 1 ER ball an outing prior at San Diego. The good news is that Arrieta has a 3.16 ERA in 5 starts at home this season compared to his 6.51 ERA in 8 outings away from Wrigley. Arrieta is also 8-1 in 12 career starts vs. the Marlins.
Free June 19th Marlins at Cubs Pick
Arrieta is a wild card in this one, but he’s much better at home than on the road. That being said, this Chicago offense is just too unreliable right now. The perfect hitting conditions actually hurt the Cubs, as they play only for the long ball. It’s a nice bounce back performance from Lopez and the Marlins.
Marlins 6 – Cubs 4
Free Pick: Marlins +105