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MLB Saturday June 15th Marlins at Nationals Betting Preview

Miami In a Rut Per Usual

The Saturday June 15th Marlins at Nationals betting matchup doesn’t necessarily have playoff implications on the line, but it’s a game those who like action will love because of the fairly even pricing. Miami (23-46) has the second fewest wins in baseball, but are just +102 underdogs on Saturday.

Washington (33-36) is having a solid year compared to 97, 107, and 91 losses the last three years. The Nats’ dominated the series opener 8-1 as -170 favorites, but are just -120 for game two. Not surprisingly, 77% of the betting public like Washington in this spot.

Why Miami Has Value on Saturday

Any time over 75% of the public likes a team, many bettors consider that an automatic fade as it looks like a trap game. Washington priced at just -120 does seem fishy considering they’ve won six of their last seven including three of four from the Braves.

The Marlins didn’t play bad in Friday’s 8-1 loss, they just had a disastrous 3rd inning in which they gave up 7 runs. The good news is that they also don’t have to face Mackenzie Gore on Saturday after he went 7.0 IP and struck out 10 in the opener. Instead, DJ Herz will be on the mound for Washington making just his third career start.

Miami started Shaun Anderson in the opener – a pitcher called up from Triple A earlier in the day and who hadn’t started in the majors since 2019. Their pitching situation is much better on Saturday as Trevor Rogers has allowed an ER or less in three of his last five starts.

Why Washington Has Value on Saturday

You don’t necessarily have to be fond of Washington to take them on Saturday – just disgusted with Miami. The Marlins have now lost three in a row and 9 of their last 11. Miami has the second worst scoring offense in baseball, and the third worst ERA – which isn’t a great combination.

While the Marlins are in a swoon, the Nationals are making a run towards being a player for the postseason with wins in six of their last seven. The Phillies are running away with the division, but Washington is just 1.5 GB of the wild card so taking all three from the last place Marlins this weekend is imperative.

While Rogers is a more formidable pitching matchup for the Nationals than the minor league call up Anderson, the Miami starter is still just 1-7 with a 5.37 ERA this season. On Saturday it’s Washington who has the more inexperienced pitcher in Herz, but the Marlins are also just 3-21 vs. left hand starters this season.

Free June 15th Marlins at Nationals Betting Pick

Contrarian play on the Marlins or take the value on the obviously better team the Nationals- that’s the main question here. Sometimes you have to play the betting numbers and not the stats, which points to a Miami wager here.

Free Pick: Miami +102

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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