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MLB Friday August 5th Blue Jays at Twins Betting Preview

Berrios vs. Old Team

Jose Berrios returns to some old stomping grounds in the August 5th Blue Jays at Twins betting matchup, back in Target Field where he called home from 2016 until the 2021 trade deadline. He’ll try to pitch Toronto to a second straight win in this series after taking a 9-3 victory in the opener as -127 favorites.

Game two has a very similar line with the Blue Jays listed as -132 favorites. The series opener was close until Toronto erupted for six runs in the 8th inning, and with Minnesota alternating wins and losses their last 7 games does that give them some value at +112 on Friday night?

Toronto Making Their Move

The AL East was about ready to be called like an election as of about a month ago, but Toronto has gone on a nice run going 12-3 in their last 15 games of July including 9-3 since the All-Star break to close the Yankees gap to 10.5. There’s obviously still a lot of work to do to catch New York, but at least the Blue Jays have ahold of the top wild card spot at 59-46.

Vlad Guerrero, Jr. delivered the big blow in Thursday night’s 9-3 win, hitting a three-run HR in the 8th inning to put the game away. Guerrero has hit .389 the past week while Whit Merrifield was 2-5 with an RBI in his team debut. When you’ve got a lineup that has Matt Chapman hitting 7th and Merrifield 8th  you know you have a talented squad.

Berrios (8-4, 4.96 ERA) makes his fourth career start vs. his former team in the August 5th Blue Jays at Twins betting pick. So far he is 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA against Minnesota, as well as 32-21 with a 3.64 career ERA at Target Field. Toronto has won 10 of Berrios’ last 12 starts this season.

Twins in a Slide

It’s almost dumbfounding that Minnesota has held on to first place in the AL Central considering they have gone 13-15 in June and 10-12 in July. The Twins’ 55-50 record wouldn’t lead any other division in baseball, and in fact the 59-46 Blue Jays would have a comfortable 1st place lead if they played in the Central instead of the AL East.

There is one trend working for the Twins heading into Friday’s game two and that’s the fact that they’ve alternated wins and losses the last seven games. With the series opening defeat that leaves Minnesota in line for a win in this spot, even though they are 1-5 their last 6 Friday games, 1-5 the last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 1-7 the last 8 home games vs. a RH starter.

The Target Field crowd could have some extra life on Friday night as Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.40 ERA) makes his team debut after coming over from the Reds at the trade deadline. Mahle’s numbers are inflated a bit playing his home games at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, so we will see how he takes to the Twin Cities.

Free August 5th Blue Jays at Twins Betting Pick

Toronto with Berrios on the mound has been the winning play in 10 of the last 12 games. With Minnesota in a bit of a slump and Mahle possibly too amped up in his team debut the play has to be on the Blue Jays here – and at not too bad of a price.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -132

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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