Today at 12 p.m. E.T. the #24 Michigan Wolverines (8-2 Overall, 5-2 Big Ten) visit the #5 Wisconsin Badgers (10-0 Overall, 7-0 Big Ten). This is the time of year that was made for upsets and the big question is will the Wolverines do just that to the Badgers? You’ve for two stingy defenses going up against two able offenses. Will this be a low-scoring affair decided by a field goal, which is a scenario that favors Michigan and the under, or will it be a game where defenses breakdown and offense overwhelms in the second half, which favors Wisconsin and the over? Our Michigan plays Wisconsin 2017 college football free pick has the Badgers favored by seven and the over/under at 42.0.
Michigan Pluses and Minuses
The Woverine D is allowing below 17 PPG. Their defense is solid versus the pass, but not quite as tough as you’d like them to be against the run. Still, they have four players who are in double-digits in TFL and four who have five of more sacks. They’ve forced 11 fumbles total.
On offense, it will be sophmore QB Brandon Peters. Peters, who has recently become the starter has four TD pass, no picks, and 60.9 completion percentage. This is a rushing offense that is led by Karan Higdon (854 YDs, 6.6 YPA, 10 TDs) , Chris Evans (569 YDs, 5.5 YPA, 6 TDs), and Ty Isaac (548 YDs, 6.1 YPA, 2 TDs). They are going up against a defense that is allowing less than 82 YPG on the ground.
- Solid defense
- Great rush attack
- Passing game is weak
Wisconsin- Pluses and Minuses
The Badgers are allowing opponents a mere 13.4 PPG while they are scoring 36.3 PPG. Six players on defense have five or more TFL, while they have brought in 15 picks and defended more than 50 passes. They also have 35 sacks, 10 FF, and seven fumble recoveries. We expect this defense to allow 10 to 14 points today.
The offense generates 245-plus yards on the ground. RB Jonathan Taylor (219 ATT, 1,525 YDs, 7.0 YPA, 12 TDs) is the go-to ball carried. In his last five games, QB Alex Hornibrook (64.1 COMP%, 17 TDs, 12 INTs) has tossed eight picks and seven touchdown passes. Prior to that he has thrown four interceptions and 10 TDs. A return to his more dependable first-half performance will certainly help the Badgers today. He should be able to do so against a defense that has a tough time defending against the pass. He’s got a group of solid receivers that includes Quintez Cephus. Cephus has 30 catches with six being for TDs.
- RB Taylor needs another major performance
- QB Hornibrook has to get back on track
- Defense is overpowering
Three Major Takeaways
Our Michigan plays Wisconsin 2017 college football free pick offers these three major takeaways on todays game:
- Wisconsin D vs. Michigan D, Badgers have edge
- Wisconsin offense has edge over Michigan’s O
- Badgers have more depth on both sides of ball
Our Picks for Michigan at Wisconsin
Here’s a quick but important stat- the Wolverines are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 meetings with Badgers. With everything else we have considered, we’re taking Wisconsin at -7.0. Despite the two very good defenses, the 42.0 over/under is very low. We’re going with the over, as we expect Michigan to generate at least 10 points and Wisconsin to put 36 or more on the board.