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MAC Friday Morning Season Finale Pick

Western Michigan at Toledo

It would be easy to be late for a game or miss it altogether if you were a MAC player. The MAC schedule has you playing on Saturdays to start the year, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays through conference play and in the case of the season finale the Friday morning after Thanksgiving. In awkward start times like this, is home field advantage the biggest play for the 11/24 free college football pick?

The Toledo Rockets (9-2, 6-1 MAC) definitely have more to play for in front of their home crowd on Friday morning. The Rockets want to go Black Friday shopping for a trip to the MAC championship game but a loss to the Broncos coupled with an NIU win over Central Michigan could have Toledo on the outside looking in for the title berth. Western Michigan (6-5, 4-3 MAC) would love to break Toledo’s heart after their own disappointing season after the Broncos actually won the MAC title game a year ago.

Is 11 Points Too Much for the Defending Champs?

11/24 free college football pick
The next regular season game WMU RB Jarvion Franklin plays is likely going to be on a Sunday.

Western Michigan has dropped three of their last five contests but could very easily be in the midst of a nine game win streak and sealing up an undefeated conference run for the 11/24 free college football pick. Consider WMU’s three conference losses were:

  • 13-14 loss to Akron on October 15th
  • 28-35 loss to Central Michigan on November 1st
  • 31-35 loss to Northern Illinois last week

Are the Broncos the best team in the MAC just victims of a few bad breaks? WMU has an advantage in the ground game as RB Jarvion Franklin has ran for 1176 yards and 12 TD this season, including six straight games with 100+ yards on the ground. The Broncos do have a new signal caller as Reece Goddard takes over for John Wassink who broke his collar bone. Goddard had less than 100 yards passing his first two starts, but threw for 211 last week against a solid NIU defense.

Does Toledo Get the Big Win to Clinch the Conference?

11/24 free college football pick
Woodside wants to go out boldly in front of the home crowd.

If the Rockets stop the WMU run game, they likely win this contest – and the MAC West – with ease. Stopping the run hasn’t always been easy for Toledo however as they allow 177.7 ypg on the ground. Failure to limit the run was the reason that Toledo’s five game win streak was snapped two weeks ago as the Ohio Bobcats rushed for 393 yards in a 38-10 win.

Say the Rockets do get in a shootout vs WMU’s ground attack – Toledo definitely has the offensive firepower to stay in the game. QB Logan Woodside has the 15th most passing yards in the country this season with 3151 and has tossed 22 TD to just 2 INT. If Western Michigan’s 56th rated pass defense stops Woodside, Toledo can turn to RB Terry Swanson who has toted the rock for 1045 this season (192 last week) and 11 TD.


11/24 Free College Football Pick – Betting

Despite the 11/24 free college football pick being the mother of all must-wins for Toledo, a lot of the bettors are liking Western Michigan and the points. About 60% of the consensus believes that the Broncos will at least cover and thus the line has moved from TOL -14 at open to -10.5. That’s solid line movement when you’re backing one of the best offenses in college football, playing at home on an awkward Friday morning, and needing the victory to head to the MAC championship game.

Pick: Toledo Rockets -10.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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