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Friday June 21st MLB Free Betting Pick: Padres at Pirates

Oddsmakers Calling San Diego vs. Pittsburgh a Tight One

There’s value on both teams in the June 21st MLB free betting pick as the odds are Padres -103 at the Pirates (-120). Both squads come into the game off of wins, but it’s San Diego that is suddenly on fire after victories in four in a row including a just-wrapped-up sweep of the Brewers. That was at home however, and now the Padres must travel to PNC Park. The Bucs’ are 5 games under .500 on their own field this season while San Diego has gone 17-17 away from Petco.

Can San Diego Stay Hot on the Road?

June 21st MLB free betting pick
Machado should be in the Padres lineup until he has his suspension appeal heard.

The Padres are on a nice run as of late, winners of 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6. They had two big wins at Coors Field, rallying late for a 16-12 and 14-13 wins over the Rockies. Playing in the Denver atmosphere definitely helped pad the San Diego stats as of late. Hunter Renfroe having 5 HR’s in his last 6 games is still impressive though as is Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Manny Machado both having an OBP over .500 over that span. Machado will be eligible to play Friday night after appealing a 1-game suspension for umpire contact.

The Padres got some great pitching in their sweep of Milwaukee, winning the first two games of the series 2-0 and 4-1. Joey Lucchessi went 7 IP on Monday and Logan Allen 7.0IP on Tuesday which greatly eased strain on the Padres bullpen. San Diego allowed 48 runs in their four games at Coors Field last weekend. The Padres also had an off day on Wednesday to ease some of the travel fatigue from the West Coast. Eric Lauer will try to continue that run of impressive pitching in the June 21st MLB free betting pick. Take away two outings at Coors Field where he allowed a total of 13 ER and the left hander has given up just 7 runs total in his last five starts (33IP).

Pirates Search For Consistency

June 21st MLB free betting pick
Josh Bell and the Pirates try to ‘steal one’ on Friday night at home.

So far so…OK for Pittsburgh as they continue their recent home stand after a 10-game road swing. The Pirates split two games with Detroit at PNC Park, barely squeaking out an 8-7 win on Wednesday as -210 favorites over the Tigers. The win brings Pittsburgh’s record to just 5-11 in their last 16 at home. The 8 runs were powered by a 3-4 day from Bryan Reynolds (including a HR) as well as the 11th long ball of the year off the bat of Starling Marte. It was actually the 7th time in the last 9 games that the Pirates have scored at least 5 runs – but they are just 3-6 over that span. Josh Bell has gone 4-9 (.444) in his career vs. San Diego’s Lauer.

Will Joe Musgrove be a bit better in the June 21st MLB free betting pick after the Pirates gave him some extra rest. The right-hander started June 10th vs. Atlanta, but was ejected after just 0.2 IP after grazing the Braves’ Josh Donaldson. Musgrove had a short turnaround and then started on June 13th, but was out of his rhythm allowing 6ER in just 4.0 IP. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 starts – besides the ejection game – that Musgrove had allowed 5+ ER in a start. He’s now had a week off to get back into sorts but does that work?

Trends:

  • Padres are 4-0 last 4 overall
  • Padres are 2-5 last 7 road games
  • Padres are 4-0 in Lauer’s last 4 starts with 5 days rest
  • Pirates are 5-11 last 16 home games
  • Pirates are 2-9 last 11 vs. LH starter
  • Pirates are 1-4 in Musgrove’s last 5 home starts

June 21st MLB Free Betting Pick

Friday night’s contest does feel like a bit of a trap with San Diego coming in with momentum against a pitcher who has struggled yet it virtually being a toss-up. There’s value on hammering the Padres, especially with Lauer on the mound who has been good everywhere besides Coors Field over the last 2-3 weeks. Both teams can put up runs, and the total seems a bit on the low side at 8.5. The line allows for hedging in that regard.

MLB Free Pick: San Diego Padres -103
MLB Free PIck: Padres / Pirates *Over* 8.5

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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