Kansas State and Arizona meet Friday night in Tucson in a rare Big 12 vs Big 12 non-conference matchup. Both teams share the Wildcats nickname, but they enter this game heading in different directions. Kansas State is 1-2 after a close loss to Army, while Arizona is 2-0 following two dominant wins.
The game will be played at Arizona Stadium with kickoff at 9:00 PM ET. Oddsmakers opened Kansas State as a slight -1 favorite with a total of 54.5. Arizona is +1 at home, and both teams will look to build momentum before diving deeper into their conference schedules.
KSU Preview – Searching for Answers
Kansas State has not found its stride through three games. After a tough loss to Iowa State in Dublin and a narrow win over North Dakota, the Wildcats were outmuscled by Army last week in a 24-21 defeat. Army ran 41 consecutive offensive plays in the second half, holding the ball for more than 40 minutes overall. That exposed K-State’s defensive depth and kept their offense on the sideline.
Quarterback Avery Johnson has been a bright spot despite the team’s struggles. He threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns against North Dakota, followed by 273 yards and two scores against Iowa State. Against Army, he managed 172 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Johnson is averaging 235.6 passing yards per game with a 12-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio across his last six starts.
Still, Kansas State is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and 0-3 ATS so far in 2025. The Wildcats’ defense is allowing 363.3 yards per game and ranks 85th nationally, including 254.3 yards per game through the air. They will need to improve in pass coverage against Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita, who has been red hot.
ARIZ Preview – Offense Rolling Early
Arizona has dominated its first two games, outscoring opponents 87-6. Last week, the Wildcats dismantled Weber State 48-3. Fifita started the game completing his first 14 passes and finished 17-of-22 for 373 yards and five touchdowns. The offense is averaging over 430 yards per game, and the defense has not allowed a touchdown yet this season.
Coach Brent Brennan praised his team’s performance but pointed out penalties as a concern. Arizona committed multiple flags last week that stalled drives. Cleaning up those mistakes will be important against stronger Big 12 competition. Still, with Fifita leading the offense and the defense holding teams to just 237 yards per game, Arizona looks sharp through two weeks.
The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS and have covered four of their last six at home. They have trended toward the Under at Arizona Stadium, with five of their last seven home games finishing below the total. Their defense, which is giving up only 4.5 points per game, has been the driving force behind those numbers.
Key Matchups
The biggest matchup is Kansas State’s secondary against Noah Fifita. K-State has struggled defending the pass, ranking outside the top 80 nationally. Fifita has already shown efficiency and big-play ability, averaging over 15 yards per completion in his last start. If Arizona’s offensive line gives him time, Kansas State could have a long night.
On the flip side, Kansas State’s Avery Johnson has shown he can move the ball through the air. Arizona’s defense has allowed only 145.5 passing yards per game, ranking 30th nationally. Johnson will be tested against a unit giving up just 4.1 yards per attempt and holding opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 71.0, good for third in the country.
Both teams have struggled with penalties. Kansas State averages 33.0 penalty yards per game, while Arizona is committing 7.0 penalties per contest for 66.5 yards. Discipline will play a key role in a game expected to be decided by one score.
Trends and Stats
Kansas State has failed to cover the spread in its last three games and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall. They have also struggled in close matchups, often allowing opponents to control time of possession. The Wildcats’ games have gone Under in three of their last five on the road.
Arizona has gone Under the total in five of its last seven home games. Despite their hot start, they have struggled historically in the moneyline market, hitting in just three of their last 11. They are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 overall but have started 2025 with back-to-back covers. The Under is 2-0 in their first two games this season.
Betting Prediction
Kansas State comes in as a slight favorite, but their defense has not looked sharp. Arizona’s offense, led by Fifita, should be able to take advantage of a secondary giving up over 250 yards per game. The Wildcats from Tucson also bring in a defense that has been dominant through two weeks, holding opponents to just two field goals all season.
Market sits at Kansas State -1 with a total of 54.5. Projection: Arizona 31, Kansas State 24. Arizona’s defense and home-field edge give them the upper hand. Expect Arizona to win outright as a short underdog, with the Under in play due to Arizona’s defensive strength and Kansas State’s recent road Under trend.
Pick: Arizona +1 (lean Under 54.5)
