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AFC Championship Over/Under Pick – Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Two High Scoring Teams Meet for AFC Title

The over/under for the New England Patriots (11-5 Overall, 3-5 Away) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4 Overall, 7-1 Home) pick is at either 56.0 or 56.5. When these two teams met during the regular season in October at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA, they scored a total of 83 points. Our Chiefs vs Patriots totals pick features two of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. And the KC defense can definitely give up some points. Here’s our Chiefs vs Patriots totals pick.

Stats and Facts

The Chiefs are scoring 35.3 PPG. The Patriots are good for 227.3 PPG. Also, KC is giving up a little over 26 PPG and the Pats are right around 21 PPG. In the last 10 games between the Patriots and Chiefs, New England has averaged 27.6 PPG and Kansas City 26.3. That’s a total of 53.9. That total is not quite at the over, but it’s very close. We can see a score of something like 30-31. That does get us over.

Edge: Over

Offensive Weapons

You’ve got to believe that either Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are going to be on their game or they are not. There’s not much to back up the notion that they will underachieve. Both teams have solid, talented, and deep receiving corps. Plus, the Patriots have a very productive rush attack. We can see these two teams scoring about 30 points each. By the way, between Brady and Mahomes this season, there were 79 TD passes thrown. That gets you 35 points. You’re more than halfway there.

Edge: Over

Chiefs vs Patriots Totals Pick – Five Key Trends

  • In four of NE’s games playing KC the over has been hit
  • Five of KC’s last seven games, total has gone over
  • In 11 of KC’s last 14 home games, the total has been under
  • Last time these two teams met 83 points were scored
  • Four of last five games on the road, NE total’s been under

Edge: Even

Our New England at Kansas City Over/Under

In our Chiefs vs Patriots totals pick, we like the over. Both the Patriots and Chiefs put a lot of points on the board last week. New England had 41 and Kansas City 31. With all of those points being scored, yes, we like the over at 56.0. Be sure you check out our Pats and Chiefs spread pick.

Summary Chiefs vs Patriots Totals Pick – Over 56.0

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pmroczka

Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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