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2019 ALCS Game 2 Free Pick Yankees at Astros

Worth it to Take a Flier on New York vs. Verlander?

Heading into the ALCS game 2 free pick Yankees at Astros you probably take Houston -168 and don’t worry about it. This is because Justin Verlander is on the hill for Houston and it’s all but assured that the ‘Stros tie this series up 1-1 after New York’s win on Saturday. Even so, that’s incredible value on the Yankees +152, especially the way Aaron Boone’s team has mowed through the playoffs thus far. Is it the “chance” or the “sure thing” that wins out on Sunday night?

New York Not a Bad Bet Right Now

ALCS game 2 Yankees at Astros free pick
Gleyber Torres is having himself a postseason.

Nobody could blame a bettor for backing the Yankees in any game this postseason. New York mowed through Minnesota in the ALDS by a combined score of 23-7 in a three game sweep. The Yankees then dominated Zack Greinke and the Astros in the opener of this series, taking Saturday night’s game by a score of 7-0.

There’s no doubt that Verlander is great for Houston. That being said the Yankees bats are doing something special this postseason. Gleyber Torres was 3-5 on Saturday with 5 RBI. DJ Lemahieu, Aaron Judge, and even Giancarlo Stanton had multi-hit nights in the opener. That helped Houston have to go to the bullpen after 6.0 IP from Zack Greinke. New York has hit just .190 as a team vs. Verlander though while Torres and Judge are a combined 3 for 30.

What New York is looking for in the ALCS game 2 free pick Yankees at Astros is another pitching performance like they saw from Masahiro Tanaka on Saturday night. The Houston offense had just 3 hits vs. the Yankees starter and James Paxton is ready to duplicate that feat on Sunday. Paxton should be better in this one than he was the last time out – his first career postseason appearance in which Minnesota scored 3 ER in 4.2 innings in game one of the ALDS.

Houston Seems Overmatched

ALCS game 2 free pick Yankees at Astros
Jose Altuve is one of just two Houston everyday batters hitting above .280 this postseason.

The Astros were the odds on favorite to win the World Series for most of the 2019 regular season. Is that pressure getting to them? Houston was stretched to 5 games vs. Tampa Bay in the ALDS and were completely outclassed by New York in Saturday’s 0-7 loss to the Yankees.

Usually you’d say that Justin Verlander going in the ALCS game 2 free pick Yankees at Astros is a good thing for Houston. That’s not such a sure bet though after the former Cy Young Award winner was tagged for 4 ER in just 3.2 IP vs. Tampa in a game 4 loss at the Trop. Verlander was working on short rest though, so maybe he gets back in a groove on a regular routine? The O/U is just 7.5 on Sunday night.

ALCS Game 2 Free Pick Yankees at Astros

The most popular bet in this matchup is Houston evening up the series with a dominating performance from Verlander. The truth is, there’s no value in that wager though with Houston being a -168 favorite. The Yankees offense has a ton of confidence right now and their pitcher may be vulnerable in just his 2nd career start in October. That means this total should climb over.

Pick: Yankees / Astros *Over* 7.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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