It’s a Pac-12 matchup tonight at 9:00 p.m. E.T., as the UCLA Bruins (0-3) visit the Colorado Buffaloes (3-0). This is the first conference game for either team. The Buffaloes are favored by 8.5 points and the over/under on this game stands at 56.5. Thus far, UCLA has lost to Cincinnati, #6 Oklahoma, and Fresno State. They’ve lost by an average of 17 points. Colorado has played and beaten Colorado State, Nebraska, and the University of New Hampshire. The Buffaloes have won their games by an average of 22.7 points. Here’s our 2018 UCLA plays Colorado NCAAF pick.
UCLA Offense vs Buffaloes Defense
The Bruins have been averaging a mere 17.3 PPG. Their 319.7 YPG in offense includes 130.7 rushing yards per game and 189.0 passing yards. Neither of which is very impressive. The Bruins would love to see more output by their offense. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a freshman, is connecting on 54.7% of his passes. He’s tossed two touchdowns and two interceptions. Theo Howard is the team’s top receiver with 11 catches and 185 yards. He’s crossed the goal line once. Senior RB Bolu Olorunfunmi has rushed for just 76 yards on 28 carries, but he does have four TDs. Freshman RB Kazmeir Allen, with one touchdown, has 161 yards on 21 carries for a 7.7 YPA average. He’s had a 74-yard TD run.
Colorado is limiting teams to 18.3 PPG. According to the research for our 2018 UCLA plays Colorado NCAAF pick, opponents are averaging 215.0 YPG in the air and 158.0 YPG on the ground against the Buffaloes. The total yardage allowed comes in at 363.0 per game. The Colorado defense has recovered four fumbles, made nine sacks, and posted 27 TFL. Freshman DL Mustafa Johnson is a massive talent. Johnson is second on the team in TFL (6.5) and first in sacks (3.5). LB Nate Landman, in his second year, top the Buffaloes in TFL (7.0), picks (2), and tackles (33). The team has 10 PD and three INTs.
Colorado Offense vs Bruins Defense
The Buffaloes can rack up yards and points. They are averaging 494.0 YPG of offense and 41.0 PPG. Colorado’s running game has been averaging 204.3 YPG, while they’ve been accumulating 289.7 YPG through the air. This is a very active offense that’s tough to stop. The Buffaloes have compiled seven rushing TDs and eight passing scores. Senior RB Travon McMillian has rushed for three scores. McMillian, who has 33 carries, is averaging 8.8 YPA while accumulating 290 yards. Colorado QB Steven Montez, a junior, comes into this game with eight TD tosses and two INTs. His completion rate is a healthy 73.4%.
UCLA is allowing opponents 37.7 PPG. Passing yards allowed per game come to 228.7. Yards on the ground per contest are 174.3 for a total of 403.0 yards per game in opponent offense. The Bruins have recorded 15 TFL, five sacks, two FF, and two FR. And although they have just one pick, they also have defended 15 passes. DB Adarius Pickett, now in his fourth season, leads the club with 40 tackles. DB Darnay Holmes, who has a dozen tackles, has broken up three passes, made one pick, and nailed one TFL.
Our 2018 UCLA Plays Colorado NCAAF Pick
In developing our 2018 UCLA plays Colorado NCAAF pick, we do admit that we like the 8.5-point spread a lot. This looks like a good bet. The over also looks promising at 56.5 as long as UCLA puts about 17 points on the board. We do believe they’ll do that. That means we’re going with over 56.5.