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NFL Week 11 Thursday Night “Total” Play

Tennessee Heads to Pittsburgh to Take on the Steelers

The oddsmakers seem spot on with their total of 44 for the NFL week 11 TNF free pick. Both Tennessee and Pittsburgh have scintillating offenses…at times and can frustrate the heck out of you in other instances. The Steelers are favored by a TD at home despite the fact that Tennessee has won four in a row (Pittsburgh has won four straight as well). There will be a lot of action on the points, but what play is the correct one on the total?

Is ’44’ a Bit Too High for the Thursday Night Total?

NFL week 11 TNF free pick
A healthy dose of Derrick Henry is very conducive to the ‘under’ tonight.

In three of their last four games the Titans have scored 23,24, and 36 points but in that other tilt they managed just a 12-9 win over Cleveland. In four of the last five games the Steelers have scored 20 points or less which would make one think that the ‘under’ is the solid play for the NFL week 11 TNF free pick.

Another reason to lean towards the ‘under’ on Thursday is because Tennessee is so reliant on the running game, thus churning up the clock and keeping the ball away from the Pittsburgh O. The Titans have the #8 rush offense and just the #28 passing attack. Then again points might be hard to come by as a whole versus the Steelers stingy defense that is #2 in total yards allowed, #2 in passing, and #11 against the rush.

Another Soaring Primetime Scoring Affair?

NFL week 11 TNF free pick
If Big Ben is under pressure, don’t expect many points.

Last week’s Monday night game skyrocketed over the total in what was supposed to be a low scoring offensive affair between the Dolphins and Panthers. Pittsburgh could lead the charge for a repeat of the ‘over’ in the NFL week 11 TNF free pick with their #10 total offense that is #10 in the pass and #18 in the run. Generally when the Steelers can’t get their running game going, they rely on the pass which they may have to do against the Titans #6 rushing D.

Something to note about Tennessee’s perceived poor passing attack is that a lot of those poor numbers were put up when QB Marcus Mariota was battling hamstring issues. He appears to have put those lingering health problems in the past after throwing for 264 yards last week against the Bengals #5 passing defense and 218 and 2TD the week prior against the Ravens #3 pass D. A healthy Mariota is also a threat to keep the chains moving with the scramble – as evidenced by the 52 yards he added on the ground last week.

NFL Week 11 TNF Free Pick – Total Betting

While the potential for fireworks is their with these two offenses, you have to think it’s going to be a defensive conflict based on pas points allowed. The Titans have allowed 20 points or less in four of the last five (22 points being the other) while the Steelers have limited opponents to 17 points or less in five of the last six.

With two downtrodden offenses you could stake a claim for defensive stops and the subsequent field position leading to a high scoring game. These two teams have enough to move the chains however, continually flipping the field position. This might not be a bad game to tease to get the Titans nearly two TD’s and put the total up to 50. As it stands however, it’s looking like defenses decide the NFL week 11 TNF free pick.

Pick: Tennessee / Pittsburgh *Under 44

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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