The Atlanta Dream host the Connecticut Sun at Gateway Center Arena on Monday night. Tip is set for 7:30 PM ET in College Park, Ga.
Atlanta is 28-14 and sits first in the East. Connecticut is 11-31 and in fifth. The last meeting on Sep 1 ended 93-76 for Atlanta. This is the first of two meetings in three days to end the regular season.
Dream Preview – Threes, pace, and a record season
Atlanta is having its best season in team history at 28-14. The Dream are 15-6 at home and 26-15-1 against the spread. They have won 13 of their last 16 games.
The Dream are hot from deep. They tied the league mark with 19 made threes in the last game and Rhyne Howard hit nine treys and scored 37. That kind of spacing opens lanes and keeps defenses spread out.
Allisha Gray leads the team at 18.6 points per game. Howard adds 17.5 per game and can heat up fast. The guard play sets the tone and the wing scoring punishes help.
Atlanta’s defense has climbed with better communication. They pressure ball handlers and contest the arc. When the first shot is guarded, the Dream get run outs and early offense.
Against Connecticut, the Dream have stacked recent wins. Atlanta won 79-55 at home on May 25 and 82-70 at home on Aug 18 last season. The 93-76 result last week showed the same gap in shot quality and pace.
ATS form is strong. A 26-15-1 record against the number shows market support and steady performance. Home fans have seen fast starts, and first quarter numbers have been solid.
Sun Preview – Spoiler mode to close the year
Connecticut is 11-31 and 4-17 on the road. The Sun are 23-19 against the spread and 20-20-2 to the Over/Under. They have shown some late-season fight with five wins in nine after a 6-27 start.
Tina Charles leads the Sun with 16.6 points per game. Marina Mabrey adds 14.4. When Connecticut gets touches inside early, the offense settles. When they settle for jumpers, trips stall.
Ball movement is a swing stat. The Sun sit near the bottom in assists per game and turnover margin can slip when they chase. To hang in, they must take care of the ball and limit live-ball mistakes.
Defense is the path. Connecticut must run shooters off the line and close hard to Howard and Gray. If they can push Atlanta into late-clock drives, the Sun can keep this tighter.
The road record shows how small errors stack up. Second chance points and weak-side boards have hurt them late in games. A clean glass and simple sets will help stop runs.
Head-to-head has leaned Atlanta. The Sun did grab an 84-76 win on Jun 6, but Atlanta has taken two of three this season and four of the last five meetings dating to 2024. Limiting threes is the clear key.
Betting Prediction
Records and recent form favor Atlanta. The Dream are elite at home (15-6) and in ATS form (26-15-1). Connecticut’s away mark (4-17) and scoring rank point to a tough spot on the road. With Atlanta’s three-point volume and pace, the Sun need a near-perfect defensive game to keep this within one run.
Matchup lean: Atlanta to win behind guard play and shot quality. Projected score: Dream 88, Sun 75. The side leans to Atlanta on the moneyline and to cover typical home-favorite ranges. With Atlanta’s defense tightening late and Connecticut’s season-long scoring issues, the total lean is to the Under if the number sits around the low 160s.
Pick: Atlanta Moneyline (lean Atlanta to cover), Under lean
