The Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm meet Thursday night in a decisive Game 3 at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The series is tied 1-1 after the Aces dominated Game 1 with a 102-77 win, while Seattle stunned Las Vegas in Game 2 with an 86-83 comeback victory. The winner moves on to face either Atlanta or Indiana in the semifinals.
Las Vegas finished the season 29-14, second in the West, and went 18-5 at home. Seattle closed the year 23-21 and 13-10 on the road. The Aces have more playoff experience, but the Storm showed toughness in Game 2, overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit to even the series.
Aces Preview – Protecting the Home Floor
Las Vegas had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of Game 2 before letting it slip away. Jackie Young scored 25 points, A’ja Wilson added 21 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists, and Chelsea Gray dished out nine assists. Despite strong numbers, the Aces faltered late as their defense at the arc broke down.
The Aces gave up 10 made threes to Seattle, including four each to Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike. Becky Hammon called the perimeter defense “garbage” after the game, highlighting an area of concern. Vegas must close out harder and communicate better on switches if they want to advance.
Offensively, the Aces continue to get balance. Wilson dominates inside, Young can score from mid-range and beyond, and Gray sets the table for everyone else. Kelsey Plum had a quieter Game 2 but is always a threat to break out. The Aces rank top five in field goal percentage and assists, and when they move the ball, they are tough to stop.
Storm Preview – Riding the Momentum
Seattle showed grit in Game 2, erasing a 75-63 deficit with just over seven minutes left. The Storm closed on a 23-8 run, led by Skylar Diggins’ 26 points and seven assists. Nneka Ogwumike added 24 points and 10 rebounds, while Dominique Malonga delivered the go-ahead three-point play in the final minute.
The Storm’s ability to hit shots from deep was the difference. They went 10-for-20 from three, with Diggins and Ogwumike each hitting four. Jewell Loyd struggled late, missing a game-tying attempt at the buzzer, but she remains a key weapon capable of heating up at any time. If Seattle can replicate its three-point accuracy, it can pull another upset.
Seattle’s defense will also be critical. They gave up over 100 points in Game 1 but tightened up in Game 2, holding Vegas under 44% shooting. Ezi Magbegor and Brittney Sykes will need to provide strong perimeter and rim protection to slow down Wilson and Young. The Storm ranked fourth in steals per game during the season and will look to create turnovers again.
Key Matchups
Wilson vs. Ogwumike: Two veteran forwards playing at a high level. Wilson brings power and efficiency, while Ogwumike combines inside scoring with perimeter shooting. Whoever wins this battle could swing the game.
Backcourt Production: Young and Plum for Vegas versus Diggins and Loyd for Seattle. Both sides have guards capable of exploding offensively. Seattle’s guards must match the Aces’ tempo and efficiency.
Bench Impact: The Aces have leaned heavily on their starters, while the Storm have gotten timely plays from role players like Malonga. In a close elimination game, a bench spark could be decisive.
Betting Prediction
Las Vegas is favored by 8.5 points, with the total set at 159.5. The Aces are 24-21-1 ATS on the season, while Seattle is 18-28 ATS. The Storm have kept four of the last six meetings within single digits, but Vegas has a significant home-court advantage. The total has gone over in three of their last five head-to-head games.
Expect Las Vegas to make defensive adjustments and rely on Wilson to control the paint. Seattle will fight behind Diggins and Ogwumike, but the Aces’ depth and execution at home should prevail. Predicted score: Aces 86, Storm 77. That has Vegas covering the spread and the game staying just under the total.
Pick: Aces -8.5 and Under 159.5
