There look like fewer surer things on Wednesday’s MLB slate than Milwaukee going to Wrigley in the August 11th Brewers at Cubs matchup. Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.39 ERA) goes for the Brewers and hasn’t taken a loss since May 25th. Chicago counters with Jake Arrieta (5-10, 6.34 ERA) who is just trying to avoid getting DFA’d.
Milwaukee is a huge -280 favorite in this contest, but they’ve also covered the run line in each of their first two wins at Wrigley Field. Is there value in the -1.5 (-170) or even -2.5 (-125) in what should be a huge Brewers win. The run total is also 10 in this one with a 15 MPH wind blowing out to center on the North Side.
Brewers Getting It Done
We didn’t know what to expect from Milwaukee coming into this series after they dropped their last two over the weekend at home against San Francisco. It’s obvious the Giants are of a higher class than Chicago though as the Brewers took a double header on Tuesday 4-2 (-191) and 6-3 (-143).
Now the Brewers get to take batting practice off the struggling Arrieta, who couldn’t hold on to a 7-0 1st inning lead when the teams met up on June 30th in Milwaukee. The Brewers hit .290 as a team vs. the Cubs starter (38 for 131) with six different players hitting .333 or better vs. Arrieta.
Burnes is not unhittable, but he’s very close. The Milwaukee starter gave up 5 ER in a loss to Atlanta on July 30th, but bounced back with 1 ER allowed over 7.0 IP last Friday vs. the Giants. Burnes has now allowed an ER or less in 6 of his last 7 starts, and struck out 10 Cubs in his only matchup with Chicago way back in April.
Cubs Up Against It Here
Arrieta pitching in a game with a 15 MPH wind blowing out to center seems like a recipe for disaster. The former Cy Young winner gave up 3 HR to the Rockies in his last start, but that was also pitching at Coors Field. Arrieta had a 14.29 ERA in two starts in July, and has given up 13 ER over his last 9.2 IP.
Chicago doesn’t seem like they’ll be able to keep up in a shootout in the August 11th Brewers at Cubs matchup not just because they’re up against Burnes, but due to all the recent lineup turnover. Chicago managed just 5 runs in Tuesday’s double header, and are trotting out the likes of Andrew Romine, Frank Schwindel, and Matt Duffy instead of Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant.
The Brewers have also won 7 straight in this series, and are 13-3 over their last 16 as a road favorite.
August 11th Brewers at Cubs Pick
72% of the public like the Brewers in this contest, and it doesn’t seem to be a question of if Milwaukee will win but by how much. Milwaukee is going to exploit Arrieta but Chicago’s triple-A quality lineup is going to have a hard time touching Burnes – even with a huge wind on what should be a hitter’s night.
Brewers 8 – Cubs 2
Free Pick: Brewers -2.5 (-125)