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Tuesday September 3rd MLB Betting Free Pick: Phillies at Reds

Philadelphia Tries to Close Wild Card Gap With a Win in Cincinnati

Philadelphia is still in the hunt heading into the September 3rd MLB betting free pick as they are just 2.5 GB from the Cubs for the 2nd wild card spot. The Phillies continue their very winnable series in Cincinnati, where the visitors scored a 7-1 win on Monday. Oddsmakers are calling Tuesday’s game close, setting the line Philadelphia -115 (CIN -105). Can the Phillies get it done for a third straight game?

Phillies Try to Keep Plugging Away

September 3rd MLB betting free pick
Hoskins powered the Phillies with 2 HR on Monday.

Philadelphia would seem to have the edge in the September 3rd MLB betting free pick. They have won back-to-back games and by the combined score of 12-3. The Phillies are on the road Tuesday where they are 4 games under .500 though and they’ve lost 17 of the last 22 at Great American Ballpark. Rhys Hoskins is on a nice run with a .409 average in his last six games that includes two HRs in the series opener. Philadelphia has scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 7. J.T. Realmuto also has 4 hits in 5 career AB vs. Tuesday’s Cincinnati starter.

Are the Phillies only slight favorites on Tuesday because it’s Vince Velasquez up in the rotation? Over his last 6 starts Velasquez has been very good, holding 5 opponents to 3 runs or less over that span. Philadelphia’s 7-1 win on Monday still had starter Drew Smyly going just 5.1 IP. It would have been nice to give the bullpen some rest considering Velasquez has pitched out of the 6th just once in his last 10 starts. Velasquez has a 5.31 ERA on the road this year and has held Cincinnati scoreless in 2.1 innings of relief in 2019.

Reds Try to Break Out of Their Rut

September 3rd MLB betting free pick
Suarez is out on Tuesday meaning a big piece of Cincinnati’s offense is missing.

Cincinnati has just one win in their last 6 games and have been some victims of some very poor offense over that span. The Reds have been held to 3 runs or less in 4 of the last 6. Cincinnati has gone 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a RH starter at home though and have taken 17 of the last 22 from the Phillies at Great American Ballpark. Eugenio Suarez has been hot with a .346 average and 4 HRs in his last 7 games but he’s one of only 2 Reds batters with an average above .286 over that span. Suarez is also out on Tuesday after being hit in the hand with a pitch over the weekend. Cincinnati has also hit just .182 as a team vs. Philadelphia’s Velasquez.

Lucas Sims goes for the Reds in the September 3rd MLB betting free pick. The right-hander will be making his first start since July 24th but has made 13 bullpen appearances since then. Sims has 5 ER allowed over his last four relief appearances (3.2 IP). Sims hasn’t made an appearances vs. Philadelphia this season.

Top Trends:

  • Phillies are 10-2 last 12 Tuesday games
  • Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’ last 5 starts with 5 days rest
  • Reds are 7-2 last 9 home games vs. RH starter
  • Reds are 1-5 last 6 overall
  • Under is 6-0 last 6 H2H meetings
  • Phillies are 5-17 last 22 in Cincinnati

September 3rd MLB Betting Free Pick

It would be no surprise to see Cincinnati win this one, especially at home where the Reds are 5 games above .500 on the year. Philadelphia has played really bad in Cincinnati, but the Reds have some serious questions at pitcher with Sims making just his 3rd start of the season. The Phillies need this win for the wild card race and should be able to get it behind a strong offensive night.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -115


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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