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NFL Pick: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Bears and Packers Rivalry Heats Up Tonight

Two teams that faced OT in week three of the 2017 season will meet in week four for Thursday Night Football. This past week the Chicago Bears (1-2) surprised the Pittsburgh Steelers, beating them in overtime 23-17. In the meantime, the Green Bay Packers (2-1) also won in OT was they beat the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24. Last week’s win was the first for the Bears who previously this season had lost to the Atlanta Falcons 23-17 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-7. Before taking the Bengals down, the Packers had won one, beating the Seattle Seahawks 17-9, and lost one, losing to the Atlanta Falcons 34-23. Tonight’s 2017 week four Bears play Packers NFL free pick has Green Bay at -8.5 and the over/under at 44.5.

Chicago Offense vs. Packers D

The Bears have been averaging 15.7 PPG with much of their offense centered on the ground game. Mike Glennon (67.3 COMP%, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 7 Sacks) is not the most dynamic QB in the NFL, but he is an overall fairly accurate passer. RB Jordan Howard has 199 yards on 44 carries and is averaging 4.4 YPA. He’s scored three TDs. Dual-threat Tarik Cohen, who is averaging 6.5 YPA on the ground, has caught 20 passes for 126 yards and a TD, is a solid presence. Still, this is an offense that is not deep and is limited.

The Packers have allowed 22.3 PPG. The D has not had a pick yet, although they have defended seven passes, had 14 TFL and accumulated nine sacks. LB Blake Martinez (18 TCKLs, 1 SCK, 3 TFL) and safety Josh Jones (17 TCKLs, 2 SCKs, 2 TFL) should be important factors in tonight’s game. Additionally, if the Packers are going to win, look for safety Morgan Burnett (14 TCKLs, 1 TFL, 2 PD) to make a big play or two.

Green Bay Offense vs. Bears Defense

Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers have been scoring 22.3 PPG. Much of the Packer offense comes from the air game. Rodgers has completed 66.4 percent of his passes, hitting for six TDs while giving up three picks and being sacked 13 times. That last stat is scary. Additionally, three of his go-to pass catchers are questionable, including dual-threat Ty Montgomery, who has two rushing and one receiving score, scoring guru Jordy Nelson, who has caught three TD passes, and the always elusive Randall Cobb. The Packers top pass catcher, Devante Adams, who has 14 catches and is averaging 14.7 YPC, is healthy. Green Bay would like to have a bit more of its offense healthy tonight.

The Bears have been allowing 23.0 PPG. Although the Bears have seven sacks and 13 PD, they have notched only four TFL and they have no picks. The team has forced two fumbles and recovered three. Corner Kyle Fuller, who has three passes defended, needs to have a big game, as does corner Marcus Cooper, who also has three PD. DE Akiem Hicks, who has two sacks, is questionable. That is not good news.

2017 Week Four Bears Play Packers NFL Free Pick

This game could be closer than most think it will be. We’re going with a low-scoring contest and under 44.5. We like the Bears in this one at +8.5. That our 2017 week four Bears play Packers NFL free pick

2017 Week Four Bears Play Packers NFL Free Pick: Bears at +8.5 and under 44.5

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pmroczka

Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He’s written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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