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Tuesday November 12th NBA Free Betting Pick: Trail Blazers at Kings

How Does Sacramento Keep This One Close in a Possible Trap Game?

The Kings haven’t exactly gotten off to the best start to the 2019/20 campaign with a 3-6 record. Throw in the loss of main ball handler and leading scorer De’Aaron Fox for about a month with an ankle injury and Portland should be huge favorites in the November 12th NBA free betting pick, right? That’s not the case at all as the Trail Blazers are just a -2 road favorite on Tuesday. 76% of the public likes Portland here, is it time for a contrarian play on Sacramento?

Why Is Portland Not Favored By More?

November 12th NBA betting free pick
Whiteside has had some big games in his first year with the ‘Blazers.

The Trail Blazers played a lot of hoops over the weekend. Portland lost 101-107 to the Clippers last Thursday, played tough at home vs. Brooklyn in the back-to-back falling 115-119 before enduring Atlanta 124-113 in overtime at home on Sunday.

3 games in 4 nights is bad enough but Terry Stotts really put Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum through the ringer in that stretch. Lillard has played 38, 40, and 44 minutes the last three while McCollum has logged 39, 39, and 41. The Blazers did have Monday night off though and the injury to Fox really helps Portland here as Sacramento won’t push the pace as much. The Kings are down to 27th in the league in possessions per game while ranking in the top 5 for most of last season.

At least the Trail Blazers have their guards in the lineup in the November 12th NBA betting free pick. That’s not something the Kings can say as they turn to Yogi Ferrell and Cory Joseph to fill minutes at PG. Where Portland may be missing is in the front court though as Hassan Whiteside is battling a foot injury. He’s listed as probable, and will give Portland a big advantage down low against a Sacramento team also missing Marvin Bagley III. The Kings start an undersized Richaun Holmes at C with Dewayne Dedmon also on the injury report.

Can Hield and Co. Lead Sacramento to a Win?

November 12th NBA betting free pick
It’s Hield’s time to shine for Sacramento.

The Fox injury comes at a tough time for the Kings, who were just starting to look like they were putting things together. After losing their first 5 games of the year, Sacramento has rattled of wins in 3 of their last 4. That includes a big win over Utah on November 1st as +4.5 home favorites. Even Sacramento’s loss was just a 120-124 defeat in Toronto as +8 point underdogs.

Fox had been playing great for Sacramento with two 24+ games in his last four and flirting with a triple double in the other two. The Kings will rely on Buddy Hield to pick up the offensive back court slack and he’s posted 20+ points in 4 of the last 5. Bogdan Bogdanovic has also gone for 20+ points off the bench in the last two and will step into a more focal point in the offense. Oddsmakers are expecting points Tuesday with an O/U of 222, the highest on the slate. Portland has allowed 119+ points in 3 of the last 5.

November 12th NBA Betting Free Pick

There’s no way Portland should only be a 2 point favorite on Tuesday night, especially if Whiteside plays. Sacramento is going to be missing a huge chunk of their offensive playmaking abilities with Fox out of the lineup, especially in the 1st game that they have to adjust without their point guard. Games that look way too easy simply aren’t real though, thus Sacramento is a fade play here.

Pick: Sacramento Kings +2

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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