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Thursday July 18th MLB Betting Free Pick: Padres at Marlins

Oddsmakers Expecting a Low Scoring Game Between San Diego and Miami

The July 18th MLB betting free pick is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel on paper as the O/U for the contest between San Diego and Miami is just 7.5. Both squads trot out pitcher’s with small sample sizes leading up to this game and the first two tilts of the series have been night and day. The Padres lost 7-12 on Tuesday, but were able to endure a 3-2 win on Wednesday night. San Diego is a slight favorite for the early Thursday start too, listed at -120 (MIA +100).

Can Padres Get Bats Going in Early Start?

July 18th MLB betting free pick
Franmil Reyes and the Padres will try to get the bats going early on Thursday.

Could the 12:10 PM EST start time be a factor for San Diego and their west coast time on Thursday? San Diego is in game three of a 9-game Midwest-East Coast road trip and have gone 1-4 in their last 5 overall. The bats didn’t seem to be asleep on Tuesday night as the Padres plated 7 runs on 11 hits powered by a Franmil Reyes HR. That being said, San Diego got just 2.1 IP from starter Logan Allen. Chris Paddack saved the bullpen on Wednesday though, throwing 7.2 IP of 1-hit ball (losing a no-hitter in the 8th) and an Austin Hedges HR help San Diego score the 3-2 win.

The Padres offense has been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 games even though Manny Machado has 3HR in the last 5 outings. This is one reason why the July 18th MLB betting free pick total is so low at just 7.5 runs. One reason that O/U could go to the ‘over’ side is because San Diego starter Dinelson Lamet has made just two starts this year as he returns from Tommy John surgery. He lasted just 5.0 IP in each, allowing 3ER to the Dodgers and 4ER to the Braves.

Can Marlins Deliver Any Offense Thursday?

July 18th MLB betting free pick
Cooper is one of the few Marlins delivering offense as of late.

Miami has the league’s dead last ranked offense in terms of runs/game (3.63) and it’s shown lately as they’ve been held to 2 runs or less in 6 of the last 10 games. Tuesday’s matchup with the Padres seems to be an anomaly as the Marlins scored a 12-7 powered by 14 hits and 3 RBI each from Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson, and Garrett Cooper. Miami was no-hit on Wednesday until the 8th inning. Cooper does have 3HR in the last 5 games, but only 4 Marlins batters have ever faced San Diego’s Lamet.

Lamet has made just two starts in 2019 for San Diego but Miami has some pitching questions of their own in the July 18th MLB betting free pick. Marlins starter Caleb Smith spent a month on the injured list and has made two starts since returning from hip inflammation. Granted, he’s been pretty solid in those two recent outings, allowing 3ER on 5 hits to Atlanta and limiting the Mets to 2ER on 3 hits, going 6.0 IP in each game. Smith started on May 31st at Petco Park, limiting San Diego to 2ER on 3 hits although Reyes and Hunter Renfroe both went deep.

Top Trends:

  • Padres are 1-4 last 5 overall
  • Padres are 1-10 in Lamet’s last 11 starts
  • Marlins are 6-15 last 21 home games
  • Marlins are 0-7 last 7 games vs. RH starter

July 18th MLB Betting Free Pick

There’s a lot going on with the Padres right now, whether it be a Machado Instagram rant or an early start time on a lengthy East Coast road swing. The Marlins offense is absolutely putrid right now, but Smith gives them an edge on the mound in this one. The left-hander should be able to limit the groggy Padres bats, and Smith should hope for some – any – scoring from his own hitters.

MLB Free Pick: Miami Marlins +100


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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