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Super Bowl LIV: Total (O/U) 54 Betting Free Pick

The Public is Smitten With the Over, Any Chance We See a Defensive Showdown?

It’s betting Christmas in the Super Bowl LIV free total pick and casual wagerers love taking the ‘over.’ That’s especially true in the 2020 version of the big game with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s high powered offense taking the main stage. The high number of 54 isn’t deterring bettors either.

San Francisco’s defense is going to be the biggest factor in whether KC can continue their seemingly inevitable ascension to world champions. The 49ers had the #1 secondary in the league during the regular season and #2 overall defense. Bet the ‘under’ in this one just because so many people like the ‘over?’

San Francisco Defense Up for the Task of an ‘Under’

Super Bowl LIV free total pick
One way to limit the KC passing attack is to smother Mahomes.

The 49ers have put a decent and a good offense to be so far this postseason. The 49ers held Minnesota to 147 net yards in the divisional round and held Green Bay to 20 points in the conference championship. San Fran has 9 sacks in the two playoff games led by 3 from rookie Nick Bosa.

One thing to note is that Aaron Rodgers did go 31/39 for 326 yards in the conference championship. Both games were also in the Bay. The 49ers also allowed 29+ points in 3 of their last 4 regular season games, albeit to quality offenses in Seattle, the Rams, Atlanta, and New Orleans. Kansas City would definitely qualify as a good offense too though and Drew Brees threw for 5 TDs against San Francisco in week 14.

If the 49ers defense does keep it’s postseason form, their offense could also help force an under 54 in the Super Bowl LIV free total pick. Jimmy Garoppolo was a whopping 6/8 passing in the NFC championship game as San Francisco ran for nearly 300 yards on the Packers. Garoppolo had only 131 yards passing vs. Minnesota. Head coach Kyle Shanahan knows the importance of keeping a dynamic offense off the field after helping to blow a 28-3 lead over New England in Super Bowl LI when he was OC of Atlanta.

Kansas City Offense Faces Their Toughest Test of Postseason

Super Bowl LIV free total pick
Hill can exploit even the best secondaries out there.

The Chiefs’ offense has dominated the playoffs so far, even at times where it looked like their season was over. The Chiefs spotted Houston a 24-0 lead in the divisional round before going on a 51-7 run. KC fell down 7-17 to Tennessee before the Chiefs scored the next four TDs en route to a 35-17 win. This is a team that doesn’t get too low when they’re down – and have proven to be unstoppable when they start to get on a roll.

Mahomes will definitely be tested in the Super Bowl LIV free total pick mostly because the two big comebacks were in the comfort of Arrowhead Stadium. Then again, could the Chiefs offense be even better going to 60 degree temperatures? Kansas City is built on speed and Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman in a warm climate are a scary matchup. Mahomes’ mobility is also an equalizer vs. the 49ers attacking front 7.

The Chiefs defense obviously played a part in them getting behind in both postseason matchups so far. Overall though, the KC defense held six straight opponents to 21 points or less to wind down the regular season – including allowing 6 total to the Bears and Broncos. KC held the red hot Derrick Henry to just 69 yards on the ground in the AFC championship game which does bode well vs. SF on Sunday.

Super Bowl LIV Free Total Pick

There’s just a lot working towards the ‘over’ in this one. San Francisco’s defense, Kansas City’s improved defense, and key players like George Kittle (shoulder) and Travis Kelce (knee, flu) battling injuries the last couple weeks. Throw in 12-20mph wind gusts as well as the entire free world betting the over and low scoring seems to be the play.

Pick: 49ers / Chiefs “Under” 54

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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