Oddsmakers have set the total for the June 24th MLB free pick between the Padres and Giants at just 8 runs. Taking a quick glance at the weather forecast for AT&T Park in San Francisco and seeing a wind blowing out to left at 15 MPH would have bettors instantly thinking ‘over.’ Then again, you have to take into account that the ballpark is huge – 25th in the majors in HR/game at .810. The offenses are also a bit shaky – but today’s pitchers have also been inconsistent. There’s angles for either side of Sunday afternoon’s total, but which is the right side?
Will Today’s Offenses Force the Under?
For the June 24th MLB free pick you’ve got San Diego’s 26th ranked scoring offense visiting San Francisco’s 22nd ranked unit. The Padres have a tendency to especially be shut down. In their past 10 games, San Diego has been held to 3 runs or less 6 times. The Padres have just four players hitting over .267 for the past week and as a team they’ve hit only 2HR over that span. No San Diego batters have ever faced Giants starter Dereck Rodriguez and the advantage usually favors the pitcher in that scenario further giving the ‘under’ some credence today.
Today’s O/U of 8 is the second lowest on the MLB betting docket behind the 7.5 behind Gerrit Cole and the Astros against Kansas City. This is the fourth game of the weekend series between SF and SD and all the O/U have been low so far. Thursday the Giants won 3-0 to go under 7.5, the Padres won 6-2 Friday to barely go over 7.5, and under bettors who lost the total by 0.5 in that game were rewarded yesterday with a 5-3 game that went below the listed 8.5. It hasn’t exactly been fireworks at the plate between these two as we approach the 4th of July holiday.
Does the Pitching Matchup Actually Favor an ‘Over’ Play?
On the hill for the Giants today is youngster Dereck Rodriguez (2-1, 4.56 ERA). He’s been up-and-down through his first 5 starts in the majors, posting 3 outings of 2ER or less but giving up 8ER in 7.2 IP in the other two. Today’s wind is blowing out to left at 15 MPH, but the good thing for Rodriguez is that he limits fly balls – allowing only 2HR on the year and posting a 5.00 G/F rate his last start. Rodriguez has also had good control lately, not allowing a BB in either of his last two starts. Posed with San Diego’s struggling offense, the Giants and Rodriguez are a strong wager at -141 in the June 24th MLB free pick in what would appear to be a low scoring game.
One of the reasons that Sunday afternoon’s game could favor the offenses is not only because of the wind, but also because it’s a matchup of rookie pitchers. Eric Lauer (3-4, 5.47) makes the 12th start of his MLB career today and it is already the second against the Giants. The Giants scored 3 runs in 5 innings off Lauer on April 30th in what ended up being a 6-5 SF win. San Francisco has hit 5 HR over the past week, but only Joe Panik and Nick Hundley are batting over .300 during that span. That being said the Giants have been a bit better at plating runs lately, scoring 4+ in 5 of the last 7.
June 24th MLB Free Pick Betting
The big question for Sunday afternoon is how much weight you put on a major wind blowing out but in a huge ball park? The under is 9-2 in the Padres last 11 road games and 9-2 in the Giants last 11 games on Sunday. Speaking of the ballpark though, the over is 5-2 in the Giants last 7 home games and 7-2-1 in the last 10 at home vs a team with a losing record. All the numbers are siding with a 3-2 or 2-1 game and despite the wind, that’s the side to take today. Just because the pitchers are young doesn’t mean they can’t duel.
Free Pick: San Diego Padres / San Francisco Giants *Under 8*