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Saturday June 2nd Free AL Pick

Everybody's Hammering the Indians With a Rested Bauer - Should They Be?

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians continue their four game weekend set in the June 2nd AL free pick. The public is hammering Cleveland today at the tune of 82% despite the fact that Minnesota evened up the series after a 7-4 win last night. The big reason the Indians are favored is because Trevor Bauer is on the hill following one of the best outings of his…career. The Twins send Lance Lynn to the mound however, and he’s been pretty solid himself lately.

Do The Indians Exude Their Dominance This Afternoon?

June 2nd AL free pick
There’s many members of the Cleveland offense who can beat you with one swing of the bat.

Nobody would blame you for taking the Indians in the June 2nd AL free pick. We’re looking at the AL Central leaders who have a +29 run differential on the season and who have gone 7-3 over their last 10. The Indians haven’t squeaked out games lately – they’ve dominated. The Indians plated 52 runs in the six games prior to last night’s 4-7 loss at Target Field. Minnesota doesn’t want to pitch to Edwin Encarnacion right now as he’s on a .424 clip with 4 HR over the last 7 days -including one last night. Jose Ramirez has added 4 long balls himself over the past week and Francisco Lindor hit 2HR and 2 doubles in the opener, the second time he’s done that this year.

The Indians offense has been great but the story about Saturday afternoon is starting pitcher Trevor Bauer. He had his scheduled start moved back a couple days after throwing 127 pitches his last outing. What an outing that was though with 13 K’s over 7.1 IP vs. the Astros on May 27th. Bauer did allow 4ER in that game, the first time in three starts he allowed any runs. Today’s game will be the first time Bauer faces Minnesota in 2018, but if his 2017 numbers are any indication he’s a good wager this afternoon. In 5 games against the Twins last year (4 starts), Bauer was 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA.

Can Minnesota Grab Their Second in a Row?

June 2nd AL free pick
Lance Lynn has pitched good…but also bad in 2018.

Only 23% of the betting public is on Minnesota tonight despite the fact that they tied up the series last night with a 7-4 win. The Twins could legitimately be up 2-0 after coming back from an 8-0 deficit on Thursday only to finally fall 9-8 as +116 underdogs. Cleveland is favored for the third straight game, the highest so far in the series at -146. Despite all the action on the Indians however, the line has dropped from a -155 open. It almost seems like oddsmakers are begging you to take Cleveland – is J.R. Smith playing shortstop or something?

One of the major reasons there’s good value in Minnesota as well as the ‘under’ is because Lance Lynn is on the bump for the Twins. He’s allowed just 2ER in his last two starts (12.2 IP). It’s the numbers before that which scare Minnesota backers in the June 2nd AL free pick however. In the six starts prior to his last two, Lynn gave up 26 ER. The right hander should keep the ball in the park today (80% in average distance the past 30 days at 192.1 feet) and he’s controlled Cleveland in minimal sample size at .208 over 24AB.

June 2nd AL Free Pick Betting

Make no mistake, the Indians are the easy bet Saturday afternoon. There’s value in the ‘under’ which is set at 9 but there’s something about the line movement – or lack thereof – that suggests Minnesota today. Bauer was 2-4 last year on 6+ days of rest with a 4.34 ERA. Expect a letdown from the right hander today as the Twins offense stays hot.

Free Pick: Minnesota Twins +136

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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