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NFL Week 9 MNF Over/Under Free Pick

Detroit Wraps Up Week 9 On the Road in Green Bay

With Aaron Rodgers in the lineup tonight’s MNF Week 9 over under free pick goes predominantly over – especially against Matthew Stafford and the traditionally high-powered Detroit offensive attack. But, as we all know Rodgers is not in the lineup for the rest of the year and instead we rely on Packers QB Brett Hundley to capture the over…or the under in this wrap up of the NFL’s week 9.

Oddsmakers have set the total in the NFL week 9 MNF over under free pick at 42.5. The number is about right where you’d expect it for two teams that have gone 3-1 O/U in their last four matches. Green Bay has only scored 27 points total the last two weeks – but has given up 49. Detroit has scored 53 in that span – but has allowed 72.

Is “Over” the Majority Bet?

NFL week 9 MNF over under free pick
Matthews Leads the Green Bay attempt at the ‘under’

In any primetime game such as the Monday night tilt that we see this evening the ‘over’ is going to garner a lot of the public bets. This is especially true with tonight’s rather low total of 42.5. To quote Paula Abdul, when these two “get together they have nothing but fun” lately as evidenced by the last six years:

  • 2014 – GB 7, Det 19 / GB 30 Det 20
  • 2015 – GB 16 Det 18 / GB 27 Det 23
  • 2016 – GB 34 Det 27 / GB 31 Det 24

Once again if this was Stafford vs. Rodgers we’d run with the ‘over’ and never look back. It’s a tough bet this year however – on both sides. First off, Detroit has scored under 16 points in two of four games, but they’ve also tallied 62 points total in the other two. Green Bay has totaled only 27 points the last two after Rodgers got hurt so actually the ‘under’ seems ideal in the NFL Week 9 MNF Over/Under Free Pick .

Is “Under” 42.5 the Safe Bet Tonight?

NFL week 9 over under free pick
If Stafford struggles i’t’s great for the ‘under’ bettors.

Obviously the big question regarding the NFL Week 9 MNF Over/Under Free Pick is exactly what we’re going to get out of Green Bay’s Brett Hundley at QB. In the 3rd year player out of UCLA’s first start last week it wasn’t pretty. The Pack tallied only 87 yards in the air as Hundley was just 12/25. Detroit is actually exploitable against the pass at 27th in the league in yards through the air allowed. It may be Green Bay’s only source of offense considering the Lions’ #6 rated rush defense.

Detroit doesn’t really run the ball themselves as they slot in at #28 in rushing offense. The biggest way to exploit GB however is through the ground game as they are #27 in the league in rushing yards allowed.

NFL Week 9 MNF Over/Under Free Pick- Betting

Tonight’s NFL Week 9 MNF Over/Under Free Pick  comes down to a toss up essentially. The teams went ‘over’ tonight’s number of 42.5 in both games last year and in four of the last six overall. Of course, having a certain #12 in green and gold definitely helps an offense. With a #18 points allowed team in Green Bay against a #23 squad in Detroit this game is looking like an over bet. In actuality though the Packers give up a ton of yards on the ground – which will churn the clock.Combine that with coach Mike McCarthy’s refusal to let Hundley lose and it’s looking like a solid low-scoring affair.

Pick: Detroit / Green Bay *Under 42.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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