New Orleans is tied with the Falcons atop the NFC South at 4-4, and have a great opportunity to stay right at the top of the division standings in the week 9 Bears at Saints betting matchup. New Orleans has drawn their biggest favorite tag of the year, going off as -9.5 favorites against a hapless Chicago squad.
The Saints should pick up the W here, but the big question is how motivated they will be to cover the -9.5 number? New Orleans has shown a lot of improvement on offense the past three games to go along with a somewhat underrated defense so it’s not a shocker that 57% of the betting public is laying the -9.5.
Why Chicago Has Value at +9.5
Even though the Bears are just 2-6 on the season, this is still the NFL and giving any team +9.5 points deserves a second look. Chicago has lost three of their last five, but two of those were defeats by six points or less so the argument could be made that this team is playing better.
Taking the +9.5 points doesn’t even necessarily have to be about Chicago – but more about a Saints team that had lost four of their previous five games prior to last week’s big win at Indianapolis.
The Bears defense has held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less, and will be getting some help with the addition of Montez Sweat being acquired from Washington at the trade deadline this past week. New Orleans has looked good on offense recently, but has still been held to 17 points or less in three of their last six.
Why New Orleans Has Value at -9.5
You can’t really judge New Orleans on their scoring 20 points or less in five of eight games this season, because it was going to take some time for Derek Carr to get adjusted to his new team after coming over from Las Vegas in the offseason. Carr has looked very comfortable as of late, throwing 6 TDs to 2 INTs over the last four games.
New Orleans comes into the Bears at Saints betting matchup with momentum, posting their best offensive game of the season last week while amassing 511 total yards in a 38-27 win over the Colts. 350 of those yards came through the air, and coincidentally Chicago just gave up a 31/40, 298 yard, 3 TD game to Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a 30-13 loss on Sunday night.
The Saints offense seems destined to get theirs on Sunday afternoon, but there’s a really good chance the New Orleans defense could eat as well. The Saints are 5th in the NFL in yards allowed (296.4), allow just 19.3 ppg and are going up against Bears QB Tyson Bagent – an undrafted rookie making just his third NFL start.
Free Week 9 Bears at Saints Betting Pick
Chicago was getting 10 points on the road at the Chargers last week which looked like a lot – but wasn’t really in a 17 point defeat. The Bears being on the road again for a second straight week might have a very similar result especially with the Saints kind of getting in the groove.
Free Pick: Saints -9.5