The line for the week 7 Chiefs at Titans betting preview raises some eyebrows. Tennessee has won four of their last five and are fresh off running all over a good Bills team on Monday Night Football in a 34-31 win as +6 point underdogs. Derrick Henry had 143 yards and 3 TD in that game yet the Titans are +4.5 underdogs on Sunday.
The Chiefs’ biggest Achilles heel this season has been their defense, which did show improvement last week in a 31-13 win over Washington. WFT doesn’t have near the offensive talent as the Titans though, so is this game going to come down to which team has the ball last (O/U 57.5)?
Chiefs Defense On Center Stage
Buffalo has the #1 defense in the NFL and they were exploited by Tennessee on Monday night – so how does that make KC and their #28 unit in total yards allowed (410.5) and #27 vs. the run (133.2) feel heading into this game? More importantly, why are the Chiefs favored?
Kansas City lost to that same Bills team 38-20 in week 5 and that game was at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw for 315 and 3 TDs in that game and the Bills had another 120+ on the ground. The week prior Jalen Hurts threw for 387 and 2 TD while the Eagles ran for 103 yards on 19 attempts. In week 3, Justin Herbert threw for 4 TDs vs. Kansas City so their defense obviously has some issues.
Obviously even if the Kansas City defense fails to contain Henry in the week 7 Chiefs at Titans matchup their offense can more than make up for that. Patrick Mahomes threw for 397 against Washington but he also had two more INTs, bringing his tally to 7 in the last four games. The Chiefs are still #2 in total yards and #5 in scoring, so the turnovers aren’t totally killing them.
Henry Time Again and Again
Expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry on Sunday – that’s always the recipe for the Titans but especially up against this Kansas City defense. Henry has 430 yards and 7 TDs in the last three weeks alone and is up 250 yards in the NFL rushing lead.
Despite the potential for Henry to shred the KC defense, it’s been opposing QBs who have had the most success vs. Kansas City lately. Does that mean an upside game for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is coming? Tannehill has just 2 TD to 1 INT over the last three weeks but there are signs that a breakout could be coming. A.J. Brown has battled injuries this year but came back with 91 yards and 7 catches vs. the Bills. Julio Jones has been banged up too but got loose for a 48 yard catch against Buffalo.
The big challenge is going to be for the Titans defense, who gave up 353 yards and 3 TD to Allen on Monday. The Titans will stop the run, but is Mahomes ready to Mahomes?
Week 7 Chiefs at Titans Pick
Oddsmakers seem like they want us to take the Titans here with the KC -4.5 line. Tennessee is on a short week after a physical game with Buffalo on Monday, but they’re also playing at home for the 2nd straight game. 58% of the public is still on KC, but sometimes you just can’t overthink things. The Titans run game is too strong and the Chiefs defense too weak.
Titans 38 – Chiefs 34
Free Pick: Titans +4.5