5-1 Kansas City “only” giving -5.5 points to Los Angeles (2-3) in the week 7 Chargers at Chiefs betting matchup at first glance looks like one to jump on the home team at Arrowhead. For whatever reason though these two AFC West division rivals seem to always play each other tight recently, with five of the last six meetings being decided by one score.
The public is playing this game “smart” on Sunday, with 72% of the money coming in on Los Angeles to cover the number. Seasoned gamblers know that even though this is usually a tight matchup, the amount of bets on the Chargers gives the feel of one of those 45-24 K.C. wins – but that’s why you play the game.
Why the Chargers Have Value at +5.5
It’s a very cliché saying, but you really can throw out the records when the Chargers and Chiefs get together lately with three of the last six meetings coming down to a field goal and two other games being decided by 6 points.
The only blowout in the last three seasons was a 38-21 win by the Chargers in January of 2021 and that was also at Arrowhead Stadium – but to be fair K.C. was resting their players for the postseason in that matchup.
L.A. might be just 2-3 on the season, but those three defeats have come by a combined 8 points in losses to Miami (34-36), at Tennessee (24-27), and last Monday night against Dallas (17-20). The Chargers’ two wins were also one score games at Minnesota (28-24) and vs. Las Vegas (24-17) so at the very least this is a team that keeps things close win or lose.
Why the Chiefs Have Value at -5.5
Everything is pointing to a play on the Chargers in this spot – which is a good thing if your research is giving a lean towards the Chiefs. L.A. has been in a one score decision all five of their games this season and people are calling Kansas City overrated so isn’t this the perfect time to wager on Andy Reid and company?
The Chiefs may have struggled in last week’s 19-8 home win against Denver, but they were also on the short week with a Thursday game following road wins at the Jets and at the Vikings. While the short week is a quick turnaround for NFL teams, the payoff is extra rest for the following game which Kansas City will be experiencing when they host L.A. on Sunday.
Kansas City’s offense has the perfect matchup to quiet the doubters. The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the NFL (289.0 ypg) despite having the likes of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa chasing down the opposing QBs and their 391.6 total yards allowed is the second most behind only Denver.
Free Week 7 Chargers at Chiefs Betting Pick
Too much money on the Chargers here and too much hate against the Chiefs. This contest has all the makings of a “get right” game for Mahomes and the Kansas City offensive attack especially when everybody thinks it’s going to be close.
Free Pick: Chiefs -5.5