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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 2020 – Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Tight Spread as AAC Meets SEC

Our Tulsa vs Mississippi State pick 2020 for the Armed Forces Bowl is the first of three bowl games being played on New Year’s Eve. It offers the Golden Hurricane, who finished second in the American Athletic Conference, and the Bulldogs, who were last in the SEC – West. Tulsa recorded a 6-0 conference mark. They had a 6-2 overall record. In the SEC – West over 10 games, Mississippi State recorded just three wins and seven losses.

In this bowl game, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are slightly favored at -1.5 (-105). The Mississippi State Bulldogs spread is +1.5 (-105). The best under is 45.5 (-105). While the over to play is 45.0 (-109).

The Armed Forces Bowl will be played on Thursday, December 31. The kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm ET with the game being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. The weather is predicted to be cloudy with a temperature of 39-degrees and 90% humidity. Probability of precipitation is 100% and winds will be 15 MPH from the NNE. During the game, it will be chilly to cold and miserable.

Tulsa vs Mississippi State Pick 2020 – Statistics

Our Tulsa vs Mississippi State pick 2020 notes that in terms of basic stats, the Golden Hurricane appear to have a big advantage. On one hand, the Tulsa offense averaged 27.3 PPG. On defense, they allowed opponents just 20.8 PPG. Conversely, the Bulldogs averaged merely 20.7 PPG, while giving up 28.3. Consequently, the Golden Hurricane dominate the Dogs in PF/PA differential, posting a positive mark of 14.1.

In terms of offensive yards, Tulsa offers a balanced attack, averaging 241.0 passing and 160.3. rushing yards per game. However, Mississippi State uses one basic offensive weapon, the air attack. This season, the Bulldogs averaged 311.1 YPG in passing and just 36.0 YPG in rushing. On defense, the Bulldogs struggled against the pass, allowing 255.0 air yards, while they held opponent ground attacks to 125.3 YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Golden Hurricane allowed opponents just 194.8 air YPG and a more substantial 146.0 YPG in rushing,

Armed Forces Bowl – Offense and Defense

As we will point out a few times, Tulsa offers a much more balanced offense than Mississippi State. State is about the pass. Both teams have solid defensive stats, but the Golden Hurricane have allowed far fewer points as well as fewer yards than the Bulldogs have.

Golden Hurricane and Bulldogs – Offenses

Tulsa QB Zach SmithTulsa vs Mississippi State Pick 2020 Tulsa QB completed 55.8% of his passes, hitting for a dozen TDs while tossing eight picks and being sacked 13 times. WR Josh Johnson has grabbed six TD passes, while three different running backs have run for a total of 10 scores. Together, the unit has accumulated over 1,100 rushing yards. In addition, WR JuanCarlos Santana has caught four TD passes on 30 total receptions.

For the Bulldogs, QB Will Rogers, who’s completed 69.9% of his passes, has thrown 10 TD passes while giving up seven picks. He’s been sacked 16 times. However, don’t count on Rogers starting, as K.J. Costello, who’s also started this season, may get the nod. Still, Costello’s numbers are lacking as the graduate transfer has thrown a half-dozen TD passes and 11 picks, He’s been sacked 14 times. Four different receivers have caught at least two scoring passes for a total of 12 TDs. Three of those pass catchers have 30 or more receptions and the trio has over 1,500 receiving yards. RB Jo’Quavious Marks tops the rushing unit 240 total yards on 59 attempts.

Tulsa vs Mississippi State Pick 2020 – Defenses

Tulsa comes to this game with 19 sacks, six picks, and 28 PD. They’ve scored two TDs and forced and recovered 10 fumbles. LB Zaven Collins has grabbed four picks and defended two passes, while safety Kendarin Ray tops the team with 39 solo and 57 total tackles. He’s defended six passes as has safety TieNeal Martin.

On defense, the Bulldogs have 20 sacks, nine INTs, and 34 PD. They’ve scored two TDs and forced five fumbles, recovering seven. LBs Aaron Brule and Tyrus Wheat have recorded 3.5 and 4.5 sacks respectively. Corner Emmanuel Forbes leads the Dogs with four picks while defending six passes. Safety Collin Duncan has grabbed two INTs and posted three PD. LB Erroll Thompson comes to this game with 87 total tackles.

Tulsa vs Mississippi State Pick 2020 – Final Word

Our Tulsa vs Mississippi State pick 2020 is taking the Golden Hurricane. We prefer their balanced attack. It gives them options. Also, although Mississippi State has some sound defensive stats, they have holes in their D and give up too many yards and too many points. Take the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at -1.5 (-105) and the over at 45.0 (-109). Also, please see our Cotton Bowl picks for Wednesday, December 29. That game starts at 8:00 pm ET.

Armed Forces Bowl 2020 – Summary

Point Spread – Tulsa Golden Hurricane at -1.5 (-105)
Totals – Over 45.0 (-109)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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