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NFL Week 4 Vikings at Bears Free Pick Total 38.5

Oddsmakers Not Expecting Many Points Sunday at Soldier Field

Chicago is a -1 point favorite on a short week in the NFL week 4 Vikings at Bears free pick. The total for Sunday afternoon’s contest is just 38.5 points though. Minnesota is going to try to run the ball with the league’s #2 ground attack but Chicago is up to the challenge with their #5 rushing defense. What are the intangibles that make this game go either ‘over’ or ‘under’ the total?

Will Minnesota Be Able to Run the Ball vs. Chicago’s Defense?

NFL week 4 Vikings at Bears free pick
Can the Bears defense bottle up Cook and the Vikings on Sunday?

It’s no secret what Mike Zimmer is going to try and do in the NFL week 4 Vikings at Bears free pick and that’s run the ball. The big question is will Minnesota be able to? Dalvin Cook has been great so far this season, running for 111, 154, and 110 yards through the first three games. The most yards Chicago has allowed on the ground this year though is 90 (on 24 carries) in week two at Denver.

Will the Bears’ ability to stop the run force Minnesota to pass and thus make the ‘over’ 38.5 more likely here? Kirk Cousins hasn’t completed more than 15 passes in a game yet this season and made a horrible decision throwing an INT in the end zone that cost Minnesota the game in Green Bay. On a Sunday night game last year at Soldier Field Cousins was 30/46 with 2 TD but also threw 2 interceptions. It could be a wet and rainy day in Chicago which also favors the ‘under’ in this tilt.

Will Chicago Continue Their Improved Offensive Play?

NFL week 4 Vikings at Bears free pick
Even with a new coordinator the Bears defense has looked like their usual dominant selves.

What part will the Minnesota defense play towards the total in the NFL week 4 Vikings at Bears free pick? Chicago looked much better on offense on Monday as Mitch Trubisky was 25/31 for 231 and 3 TD but that was also against Washington’s 25th ranked defense in total yards and 31st ranked unit in points allowed.

The Bears did sweep the season series vs. Minnesota last season, winning 25-20 at Soldier Field and 24-10 in the Twin Cities. Trubisky had just 165 yards passing in the first meeting, but ran the ball 10 times for 43 yards. Chicago also got 172 yards rushing from Jordan Howard in the two meetings with the Vikings. Howard is gone and Chicago has struggled to find the run game so far averaging less than 100 yards per game. The Bears put up just 19 points in the first two games of the season and some would consider their offense zero dimensional – not even one dimensional.

The Bears defense could also be vulnerable in this one coming off a short week. Chicago did pick off Case Keenum three times on Monday, but also allowed 332 yards passing from the Redskins offense. Chicago did hold Minnesota to 22 yards rushing on 14 carries at Soldier Field last season and gave up 63 yards on 15 attempts in the regular season finale. Can the Bears do it with a quick turnaround though?

NFL Week 4 Vikings at Bears Free Pick

Chicago beat Washington 31-15 but 6 points came on a Ha Ha Clinton-Dix INT return. The Bears offense was also helped by field position with the defense forcing 5 turnovers. There are definitely still some questions remaining for Trubisky and Co. It’s early in the season so the Chicago defense should be able to answer the bell even when playing on Monday. If Minnesota can’t run, they probably can’t pass either then. Is this a 16-13 game, especially if inclement weather arrives?

Free Pick: Vikings / Bears *Under* 38.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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