The Longhorns are tied in the loss column (10-4) with Kansas atop the Big 12, and they hope to keep it that way heading into Tuesday’s Iowa State at Texas betting matchup. Texas needed OT to beat Oklahoma on Saturday as -10.5 favorites, so maybe ISU sees their opening.
The Cyclones fell 61-55 at Kansas State over the weekend, failing to cover the +4 point number. That makes five losses in the last seven games for T.J. Otzelberger’s club, who have dropped to fifth place in the conference at 8-6. Iowa State is getting +7.5 points but 55% of the betting public like the Longhorns at home.
Why Iowa State Can Cover +7.5
This number seems a bit on the high side even though Iowa State has lost six straight conference road games. The Cyclones are still 17-9 overall on the season and that record includes a 78-67 win over Texas in Ames on January 17th.
Texas had no answer for Jaren Holmes in the first meeting as he had 21 points on 7-13 shooting. Holmes leads Iowa State with 13.3 ppg with Gabe Kalscheur (12.4) and Caleb Grill (10.0). Kalscheur has big game potential as evidenced by his 25 point outing earlier this year against Texas Tech while Grill has a 31-point game vs. North Carolina this season.
The real reason ISU can cover the +7.5 in the Iowa State at Texas betting matchup is their defense, which ranks 1st in the Big 12 and 16th in the country giving up just 61.6 ppg. The Cyclones rank 7th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Why Texas Can Cover -7.5
Iowa State has some talented offensive players, but their three leading scorers are all struggling lately. Holmes has been held to 8 points or less in two of his last three, Kalscheur has scored in single digits in four of his last five, and Grill is questionable with a back injury that kept him out of Saturday’s game.
The Cyclones have a good defense and held Texas to 67 points in the first meeting, but it’s also not likely that the Longhorns shoot 4-17 from three like they did last month against ISU. Texas has hit for 80+ points in three of their last four with Sir’Jabari Rice getting hot with 20+ points in four of his last seven while averaging just 12.0 on the season. Marcus Carr also has 23+ in two of his last four.
Location is also a big advantage for Texas as they are 15-1 at home this season while Iowa State is just 2-7 on the road and is 0-5 ATS in their last five away tilts. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 head to head meetings in the series.
Free Iowa State at Texas Betting Pick
Iowa State could be in trouble here with Grill banged up while Holmes and Kalscheur are both struggling a bit. Meanwhile Texas has been getting great production from Rice and Carr plus they are a very good home team while the Cyclones are atrocious on the road.
Free Pick: Texas -7.5