The betting world changed on September 7th when Kansas City went into Gillette Stadium and smacked around the Patriots 42-27 in the season opener to the 2017 league year. It’s not like New England was invincible at home, but the stunning Chiefs win (as 8 point underdogs) showed the big bully could get beat on his own playground. Gamblers are still feeling the reverberations from that matchup as we head into the NFL week 4 noon games free pick.
The Carolina Panthers are 9 point dogs for Sunday afternoon’s tilt. There’s a stigma surrounding the Panthers even though they are off to a 2-1 start. The Panthers are still synonymous with defense, still have Cam Newton taking snaps, and have added a young playmaker in Christian McCaffrey but there just seems to be a lack of excitement and positivity around this team. Perhaps a win on the road in New England helps put them back on the NFL map?
Is 9 Points Too Much (For Carolina) In the NFL Week 4 Noon Games Free Pick?
Carolina is 2-1, but there wins have come against San Francisco (23-3) and Buffalo (9-3). Last week at home against the Saints the Panthers were rocked 34-13 while holding Drew Brees to 213 yards but giving up 149 on the ground. The Carolina offense as a whole is a major worry for coach Ron Rivera.as they are the 5th worst team in the league at 276.7. Newton is throwing for only 168.3 per game although the ground game is averaging 108 YPG. Newton could get back on track today against a Patriots pass defense that is worst in the league giving up 330.7 YPG.
Some experts are pronouncing that the window has closed on the great Carolina defense but they’re actually #1 in the NFL allowing only 251.7 YPG. Their pass defense is allowing only 162 YPG and they’ve been stout against the run giving up just 89.7. The defense will be the key in the NFL week 4 noon games free pick.
Can New England Cover the -9?
The Patriots are 1-2 ATS this season. Everybody knows about the opening night loss to Kansas City and the redemption a week later against New Orleans as Brady threw for 447 and 3TD against the Saints. Last week however, New England narrowly avoided going 0-2 at home as Brady found Brandin Cooks for a 25-yard TD with 0:23 on the clock to upend Houston 36-33. Basically, what’s up with the Patriots’ home woes?
Retweeted Jeremy Igo (@CarolinaHuddle):
Defense Team Rankings (YPG)
1. Carolina Panthers
32. New England Patriots
— Daniel Aderholdt (@danielisdrums) October 1, 2017
The New England offense is obviously still clicking. The Patriots have the best passing attack in the league by a large margin at 340 YPG (Minnesota is second at 285). Their run game has even improved as Mike Gillislee and Co. are running for over a hundred per game. This will obviously be put to the test today against the ferocious Panther attack.
NFL Week 4 Noon Games Free Pick
The Patriots are always a popular public pick and that’s no different today as an insane 75% are behind New England despite the lofty spread of 9 points. The total is 49.5 in which could honestly be a 17-10 game or a 35-28 matchup. The Carolina ML is +358, which looks really good with their defense and the atrocity of which New England cannot stop the pass. Cam Newton gets it going finally, which opens up McCaffrey for really the first major time this season – but take the points in the NFL Week 4 noon games free pick just to be safe.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +9