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NCAAF Week 7 LSU at Florida Betting Preview

New Coaches Get First Taste of SEC Rivalry

The bunched up SEC gets a beat more clearer after Saturday’s LSU at Florida betting matchup. Both teams are 4-2 on the season already somewhat off the pace in a conference that had four undefeated teams as well as 1-loss Mississippi State coming into Saturday’s contest.

Both LSU and Florida would be considered a step behind the top tier teams in the SEC, mostly because both teams are having to adjust to offseason coaching regime changes. Brian Kelly and LSU got stomped 40-13 at home last week against #6 Tennessee as just +2.5 point underdogs. UF picked up their first conference win for Billy Napier in a 24-17 win over Missouri but as -11 point home favorites. The Gators are a slight -1.5 favorite Saturday.

LSU Has Taken Last Three In the Series

Say what you want about the end of the Ed Orgeron tenure in Baton Rouge, he took LSU to a National Championship in 2019 and had won four of the last five vs. Florida – including three in a row.

Now Kelly will try to continue that solid run over the Gators in the week 7 LSU at Florida betting matchup. The Tigers had a great chance at beating Florida State in the season opener, but a blocked field goal led them to a 24-23 loss as -4 point favorites. Following a four game win streak, last weekend’s 27-point home loss to Tennessee definitely marks the worst performance of LSU during Kelly’s tenure to date. Make no mistake the Vols look great this year, but they had also lost the previous five in the head to head series.

Tennessee was able to do whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers last week, rushing the ball 49 times for 263 yards while adding another 239 yards passing from Hendon Hooker with 2 TDs. That will definitely be an area of concern for LSU vs. Florida, as UF runs for 217.4 ypg which is the 17th best mark in the nation.

UF Run Game Should Be Able To Dominate

Florida finally picked up their first conference win last week after falling 26-16 to Kentucky at home in week 2 and then playing tight in a 38-33 defeat to Tennessee in Knoxville which covered the +11.5 point spread. The Gators were able to beat Missouri by a TD last week, but they in turn did not cover the -11 point number.

Now Napier looks for his biggest conference win so far in his young tenure in Gainesville, and his game plan will almost undoubtedly involve running the football against an LSU defense struggling to stop the run. The Gators continued to pound the rock last week, with Montrell Johnson, Jr and Trevor Etienne combining for 169 yards on just 18 attempts. Johnson, Jr. and Etienne are both Louisiana natives so they’ll want a good showing here.

Free LSU at Florida Betting Pick

As it is week in and week out with Florida, their X-factor is going to be QB Anthony Richardson. The one-time preseason Heisman contender and guaranteed first round NFL draft pick has had a rough year with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. He only had 66 yards passing last week against Mizzu, but you also see where the hype comes from when he had over 500 yards of total offense and 4 TDs vs. Tennessee.

Richardson had 3 TD passes and a TD run in last year’s 49-42 loss to LSU, and that’s while not taking over for Emory Jones until the 3rd quarter. This is just LSU’s second road game of the season, and the Swamp is going to be jumping to get this win.

Free Pick: Florida -1.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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