Dallas (10-5) is hoping that it’s home sweet home when they get back to AT&T Field on Saturday night in the week 17 Lions at Cowboys betting matchup. Mike McCarthy’s squad has lost two in a row, but they are also 7-0 playing on their own turf this season.
Detroit (11-4) is in an extremely unique position, coming off the celebration from their first division title since 1994 with last week’s win in Minnesota that clinched the NFC North. The Lions still have plenty to play for though, as they are currently tied in the win column (behind in the tie breakers) with San Francisco and Philadelphia for the top seed in the NFC. The Cowboys’ home field success is a driving force behind them being -5.5 favorites on Saturday night.
Why the Lions Have Value at +5.5
Detroit has one of the few offenses in the NFL that can keep up with Dallas if this game turns into a shootout (O/U 52.5). The Lions rank 3rd in the NFL in total yards (394.1), 3rd in rush yards (141.1), and are 5th in both passing offense (253) and points (27.5).
The Lions have put up 30+ points in three of their last four including last Sunday’s 30-24 victory at Minnesota and 42 the week prior against the Broncos. Detroit seems to have a true two-headed rushing attack with Jahmir Gibbs and David Montgomery, and QB Jared Goff has 6 TDs to 0 INTs the last two games.
The Detroit defense also has to be playing with some confidence, holding the Broncos to 17 points in week 16 and intercepting Minnesota QB Nick Mullens four times last week. The Vikings ran the football 11 times for 17 yards as the Lions have improved to #4 in the NFL against the run (90.6).
Why the Cowboys Have Value at -5.5
The Lions may have intercepted Minnesota four times last week, but they also gave up a 411-yard passing day to Mullens. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had a down game against the Bills on December 17th throwing for just 134 yards with 0/1, but he bounced back last Sunday vs the Dolphins with 253/2/0.
Prescott gets a Detroit defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL allowing 234.9 ypg, and the Dallas QB is much better at home. On the road Prescott has completed 63.2% of his passes with 10 TDs and 5 INTs but at home those numbers jump to a 74% completion rate with 20 TDs against 2 INTs.
Dallas does come in on a two game losing streak, but it’s tough to go into Buffalo and Miami and pick up wins on the road. The Cowboys had won five straight prior, including a 33-13 dismantling of the Eagles in their last home game.
Free Week 17 Lions at Cowboys Betting Pick
59% of the betting public is taking the Cowboys to cover the -5.5 number at home, and it’s hard to argue how good Dallas has looked at home this season. It’s possible that Detroit does have a bit of a letdown here after winning the NFC North for the first time last week, but it seems the best angle to take in this game is to bet on two high-powered offenses to push the total over.
Free Pick: Over 52.5