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NFL Week 16 Bills at Patriots Betting Preview

Was New England Exposed Last Week?

The AFC East is back on the line in the week 16 Bills at Patriots betting matchup. New England had a 7-game win streak snapped last week in a 27-17 loss to the Colts, dropping them to 9-5. Buffalo (8-6) can climb back in to first with a win as they would have the better division record.

Weather conditions are expected to be in the high 30s, still much better than the windy and snowy matchup between these division foes in week 13 that the Patriots won 14-10 on the road as +3 point underdogs. New England QB Mac Jones threw just three passes in that contest. The teams are back at Gillette Stadium for the rematch, with the Patriots a slight -1 point favorite.

Can Bills Get the Road Win?

Foxborough is going to be amped up on the day after Christmas when the Bills come to town. Buffalo can climb back into the division lead with a win, but New England would have a huge advantage with a victory and a season sweep over the Bills. Miami would actually still be in contention for the division crown with a Patriots victory.

Scenarios aside, Buffalo just wants the victory and they looked good in last week’s 31-14 win at home against an overmatched Carolina squad. Josh Allen had an efficient 210 yards passing with 3 TDs. Allen was 15/30 for 145 yards and a TD in the horrible conditions of the week 13 loss to the Patriots.

Allen was great in his last trip to Gillette Stadium, guiding a 38-9 win in week 16 last season with 320 yards and 4 TDs. That was a down year for the Patriots, but Buffalo also averaged 47.3 ppg over the last three weeks of 2020 – is this the time of year their offense turns it on?

Pats Try to Bounce Back

New England suffered a 27-17 loss last week even coming off the bye, but that was on the road and against what looks to be a really good Colts team. The Patriots had won seven straight prior and against some decent teams like at the Chargers and these Bills and at home against the Titans and Browns.

New England’s biggest problem vs. the Colts was stopping the run, with MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor running for 170 yards as part of 226 that Indianapolis amassed on the ground. The Bills are much more pass oriented, but that doesn’t mean they can’t run the ball as their 120.9 ypg rushing are 12th in the NFL, helped a lot by Allen’s 555 yards.

This is the time of year when first year players typically hit the rookie wall, so is that what is coming for New England’s Mac Jones? He was 2/3 for 19 yards in the first win over Buffalo, but that was mostly due to the weather. Jones was 26/45 for 299 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT vs. the Colts.

Free Week 16 Bills at Patriots Betting Pick

This is essentially a toss-up game with New England as a -1 point favorite. We can’t take a whole lot from the first meeting of the season between these two squads because it occurred in a blizzard. This is also the type of big game where you might fade a rookie QB, but Jones played in these types of situations almost weekly at Alabama and New England coach Bill Belichick has been here a million times over the last 20 years.

That being said, Buffalo got hot this time of year last season and is in a revenge spot after losing this matchup at home.
Bills 24 – Patriots 20

Free Pick: Bills +1

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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