Based on what happened so far this week in the NFL, the easy pick for the NFL week 15 Monday night total play would be whoever is favored. This is because favorites went 15-0 SU and 11-3-1 ATS. Oddsmakers have set the Falcons at -7 favorites on the road in Tampa Bay on Monday night but the number more concerning is the total of 48.5.
Totals weren’t as easy to call in week 15 with a record of 6 overs, 8 unders, and 1 push. Monday night’s total of 48.5 is the second highest of the week (behind NE/Pit 53) but there were a considerable amount of high scoring games yesterday as 7 of 12 matchups combined for over 48 points.
The Bucs are already eliminated from the playoffs.
But one thing is certain: we are NOT taking this game lightly.
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 18, 2017
A High Scoring Affair in the First Matchup This Year
Atlanta (8-5) will have their offense firing on all cylinders in the NFL week 15 Monday night total play – at least they will if they want to stay a leg up in the NFC wild card race. The Falcons have the 6th seed as it stands, and can go a game up on Detroit, Seattle, and Dallas with a victory. Atlanta has the offense to put up the points, ranking 10th in total yards, 8th in the passing game, 11th in rushing and 15th in points scored. The Falcons won the first contest with TB this season, a 34-20 win that went ‘over’ the listed 47. Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a TD in that contest, mostly to Julio Jones who corralled 253 yards and 2 TD through the air.
Tampa Bay (4-9) is in upset mode of their division rivals. The Bucs have both the offense to score – as well as the defense to give up points to push the over. Tampa Bay is 11th in total yards and 6th in passing offense, but also 31st in total yards allowed including having the NFL’s worst passing defense. Some trends favoring the ‘over’ include:
- Over is 10-0-1 in Falcons last 11 vs a team with a losing record
- Over is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games
- Over is 8-2-1 in Falcons last 11 following a SU win
48.5 Might Be Too Many Points for the Tampa Bay Offense
Atlanta has a great offense, that’s not debatable. Something that is often overlooked about the Falcons is how solid their defense is, ranking 8th in total yards, 7th against the pass, 11th versus the rush, and 9th in points allowed. Atlanta has allowed 20 points or less in six of the past seven games. One thing that ‘under’ bettors might need to know about the Falcons offense for the NFL week 15 Monday night total play is that they’re not invincible, scoring 20 points or less in three of the past six.
The Bucs have also scored 21 points or fewer in six of their past seven games. The 20-34 loss to Atlanta earlier in the season came with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Jameis Winston has returned for the past two games, and in doing so the Tampa Bay rush offense has improved with 133 yards and 165 yards in two games. The Buccaneers gained just 94 yards on 23 carries three games ago against these Falcons.Some under trends for tonight include:
- Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four home games
- Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers last seven vs a team with a winning record
- Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last five following a SU loss
- Under is 7-3 in Falcons last 10 overall
NFL week 15 Monday Night Total Play
Bettors are expecting another high scoring affair in the second matchup between the Falcons and Bucs as the total has moved up a full point from its open to 48.5. Was Julio Jones great in the first game? 12 catches for 253 yards and 2TD would say so. That game may have been an anomaly though as Jones has put up yardage totals of 98, 24, 71, and 57 in the other four games since November 12th. Tampa Bay’s defense is much better at home, allowing point totals of 24, 10, 17, and 19 the last four at Raymond James Stadium.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons / Tampa Bay Buccaneers *Under 48.5