The Titans at Colts pick features two teams very familiar with each other. Not only do Tennessee and Indianapolis play each other twice a year as AFC South combatants, they also just met up in week 10 in a 34-17 Colts win in Nashville. Can the Titans get the revenge road win on Sunday?
The Colts are just -3 point favorites on Sunday, a line that seems low considering their 17 point win over the Titans just a couple weeks ago. The Colts also come in off a 34-31 OT victory over Green Bay and have won 4 of their last 5 overall. Tennessee looked good in a 30-24 win at Baltimore last Sunday, but have lost 3 of their last 5.
What Does Tennessee Do Different Here?
The Titans are in a bit of a rut following their 5-0 start to the season, compiling just a 2-3 record over the last 5 games. One of the worst losses over that span was a 31-20 defeat at Cincinnati as -7.5 favorites, but falling 34-17 to the Colts in week 10 may have been more damaging. Both teams enter the Titans at Colts pick at 7-3, but Tennessee would fall a game back and lose the tiebreaker if they can’t secure a win in Indianapolis.
The Titans actually took a 17-13 lead into halftime in the first meeting with the Colts, but were dominated 21-0 in the second half. What’s more concerning for the Titans is that they only got 147 yards passing from Ryan Tannehill against Indianapolis’ top flight defense. Derrick Henry broke the century mark with 103 yards on 19 carries, but Indianapolis has the #2 overall defense in the NFL and are 3rd vs. the run.
Tannehill did bounce back to go 22/31 for 259 yards and 2 TD to lead the win over Baltimore, but it was the first time in the last four games the Titans QB completed more than 60% of his passes. The Colts did allow a 311 yard, 3 TD performance vs. Aaron Rodgers last week, but that’s Aaron Rodgers. The Colts also clamped down in allowing just 3 points to the Packers in the 2nd half.
Colts Have Found Winning Formula
Indianapolis could be a dark horse Super Bowl contender based mainly on the way they seem to have found the perfect way to win games. The Colts have been absolutely lights out on defense in the 2nd half lately, allowing a veteran QB to keep chipping away and chipping away until a huge time of possession advantage eventually wears down opposing defenses.
That method is definitely working as the Colts have outscored opponents 41-3 in the 2nd half of their last two games. Philip Rivers threw for 288 yards and 3 TD in the win over Green Bay and tossed for 308 in the victory over Tennessee. Rivers has a 105 or better QB rating in 4 of the last 5.
One thing going Tennessee’s way on Sunday is the fact that the Colts leading rusher Jonathan Taylor will miss this game due to COVID exposure. Taylor had less than 30 yards rushing in 3 of the last 4 games though, so this game really comes down to Rivers’ performance.
Free Titans at Colts Pick
There must be something being overlooked in this game because it looks like a slam dunk Colts win yet 56% of the betting public likes the Titans. Tennessee splitting the series with both teams winning on the road wouldn’t be the strangest thing to happen, but Indy has arguably the best defense in the league and is getting better QB play of the two teams lately – and is at home.
Colts 31 – Titans 20
Free Pick: Colts -3