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NFL Week 11 Over/Under Play of the Day

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

As we enter into the heart of week 11 of the 2017/18 NFL season, the Cleveland Browns (0-9) are running out of time to get their first (only) win of the year. That’s going to be another tough order on Sunday against the 6-3 Jaguars who can smell the postseason. With Jacksonville being a TD favorite, which way does the NFL week 11 total free pick lean?

Oddsmakers have set the total at a very low 37, the lowest over/under of all games on the slate. As we enter into Thanksgiving week, it also beckons the time of the year that the weather starts becoming a factor in the NFL week 11 total free pick. That’s definitely the case today from balmy Cleveland.

With Such a Low Total – Is ‘Over’ the Play?

NFL Week 11 total free pick
Kizer needs to stay upright for any chance of the ‘over’ hitting today.

It’s not going to take much for this game to go over today, less than 10 points a quarter. Cleveland leads the NFL in giveaways with 23 total while Jacksonville is tied for 2nd in the league with 18 takeaways. Turnovers equal field position and easy scores. The Jaguars don’t even necessarily need their offense to score as they’ve tallied four defensive TDs on the year.

Of course to get to 37+ points you’re going to need some offense. The Browns had their second highest scoring output of the season a week ago in a 24-38 loss to Detroit. Cleveland QB Deshone Kizer threw for 232 yards and a TD and has the mobility that is going to be needed against #Sacksonville, the Jaguars swarming D. The Jags ‘O’ should be able to put up points for the NFL week 11 total free pick as Cleveland is 30th in the NFL allowing 26.7 per game.

Actually – Is the ‘Under’ a Smarter Play?

NFL week 11 total free pick
The Jacksonville D could very well pitch a shutout today.

One big question for the NFL week 11 total pick is if Cleveland can score at all. Not only are the Browns 31st in the league in points scored, they’re up against a Jacksonville D that is #1 with just 14.9 points per game allowed.Jacksonville is #1 in pass defense and #2 in total yards allowed. Not an ideal matchup for a Browns team that is 25th in passing and 23rd in total yards.

As stated earlier, this time of the year weather plays a factor in the NFL week 11 total free pick. For the 1:00 EST kickoff in Cleveland, temps are expected to feel like 29 degrees with flurries and a 17-20 MPH wind. Teams will need to rely on the run – and although Jacksonville has the #1 rush offense the Cleveland D is actually 4th at stopping the run. A lot of 3rd and longs equal a lot of punts.

NFL Week 11 Total Free Pick – Betting

The Browns might be a good pick today to cover the number, if you’re Jacksonville do you want to leave the 70 degree Florida weather for the 30 degrees and snow flurries of Cleveland? Expect a defensive struggle with two teams relying on the run to combat the elements. It’s a low total – but it’s still plenty high.

Free Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars / Cleveland Browns *Under 37

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I’ve learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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