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NFL Week 11 Cowboys at Lions Free Pick

Dallas Favored by a Touchdown on the Road as Stafford Continues to Sit

Detroit continues to be without QB Matthew Stafford as they head into the NFL week 11 Cowboys at Lions free pick. Dallas is a -7 favorite on the road in this one but there’s reasons to think that Matt Patricia’s squad can keep things close – or even get the outright win – from Ford Field on Sunday. The Lions are +280 on the ML.

Dallas In ‘Look Ahead’ Mode?

NFL week 11 Cowboys at Lions free pick
Elliott is ready to eat against a struggling Lions defense.

It would be easy for the Cowboys to overlook Detroit in this one, especially with a battle against New England looming next week and the Thanksgiving game following shortly after that. Dallas looked good in their last road game (37-18 vs. NYG) but struggled in the two away tilts prior, losing 22-24 at the Jets and 10-12 at New Orleans.

The total seems somewhat low at 46.5 in the NFL week 11 Cowboys at Lions free pick. Dallas’ offense should be able to put some points up on the Detroit defense. Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky came into last week’s game against the Lions embattled, but then produced a 16/23 with 3 TD day. That bodes well for Dak Prescott who has a QB rating of 100+ in each of the last three and  threw for 397 last week against Minnesota. Detroit’s defense is 28th vs. the pass, but also 27th against the run (30th overall). Does that mean Zeke Elliott bounces back from a 20 carry, 47 yard day vs. the Vikings?

The Cowboys get a break with Matthew Stafford missing another game but the Dallas defense allowed 150+ yards rushing to Minnesota last week. Dallas has held 5 of 9 opponents to 18 points or less on the season which could push this one towards an ‘under’ total play, especially as the Lions go with their backup signal caller.

Detroit Going to Be Better Offensively This Week?

NFL week 11 Cowboys at Lions free pick
Driskel should see improvement with a week to prepare as the starter.

Jeff Driskel didn’t find out he was going to be the starting QB until arriving at the stadium in last week’s matchup with Chicago. He responded admirably (27/46, 269, 1/1) considering the situation and being on the road against the vaunted Bears defense.

Driskel should be much better on Sunday, with a week to prepare and being at home. Driskel did start 5 games with the Bengals a year ago so it’s not like he’s being completely thrown into the fire here. Driskel showed a good rapport with the offense in getting Kenny Golladay 9 targets but any kind of rushing game sure would help Detroit in this one. J.D. McKissic had 36 yards on 10 carries vs. the Bears – Driskel had 37 yards on 5 carries in that game.

The big question is if Detroit’s defense can hold Dallas down in this one? Trubisky looked solid vs. the Lions a week ago and Detroit allowed 31+ points in 3 of 5 games prior. 3 of the last 4 Detroit games have gone ‘over’ the total but again, that was also with Stafford in the lineup.

NFL Week 12 Cowboys at Lions Free Pick

Dallas knows they need this win as they are in a dog fight with Philadelphia for the NFC East crown. That doesn’t mean the Cowboys won’t be a bit distracted on Sunday though with Detroit missing Stafford and Jason Garrett’s team traveling to New England next week. The Cowboys have had their struggles in 2 of the last 3 road games and there’s a good chance that will continue here.

Pick: Detroit Lions +7

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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