Is the week 10 Saints at Vikings betting matchup the time where reality sinks back in for Minnesota? This is a club that has lost Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins in recent weeks but has still rattled off four straight wins – doing so last week with QB Joshua Dobbs who had only been with the club for a couple days.
New Orleans has somewhat quietly put together a good run of their own, winning three of their last five to match the Vikings at 5-4. The Saints sit atop the NFC South and are a -2.5 favorite on the road in the Twin Cities on Sunday afternoon with public betting split basically 50/50.
Why the Saints Have Value at -2.5
Minnesota went into last week’s game prepared to start rookie Jaren Hall at QB, but he suffered a concussion and was replaced by Dobbs – who was signed five days earlier – who led the team to a 31-28 win over the Falcons. Dobbs may have caught Atlanta off guard, but now the Saints have some tape and are prepared to face the QB that was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week.
The Saints picked up a win last week as well, beating the Bears 24-17 for their second straight victory. Derek Carr was dialed in hitting 25/34 passes while utility knife Taysom Hill continued to be a defensive coordinators nightmare as he ran for 52 yards while also throwing and catching a TD pass. The Vikings defense is only allowing 17 ppg during their four game win streak but will have their hands full with the Saints.
While the Saints offense should get theirs on Sunday, the key to covering the -2.5 points is the New Orleans defense. Dobbs has to come back to reality a bit against a New Orleans club that forced 5 turnovers against the Bears last week. The Saints defense is 7th in the NFL in total yards (304.3), passing yards (192), and points (19) allowed this season.
Why the Vikings Have Value at +2.5
Minnesota has drawn the home underdog tag on Sunday, but this is a team that either beats you or at least plays you close. All of Minnesota’s four losses have come by one score, and they’ve turned things around from a 1-4 start to climb back in the playoff hunt.
You can look at Dobbs catching the Falcons off guard last week by going 20/30 for 158 yards and 2 TDs – and while New Orleans now has tape on the QB he also has to benefit from an actual week practicing with the starters. Dobbs has two great weapons to feed in TE T.J. Hockenson (7 catches last week) and Jordan Addison (5 catches).
The Saints have a good defense, but have also allowed 51 total points in losses to Houston and Jacksonville over the past month as well as 27 in a win over the Jaguars. On the flip side the Vikings defense is also playing better and has fueled their win streak.
Free Week 10 Saints at Vikings Betting Pick
We may have a typical coin flip game here as it could really go either way. It’s hard to expect Dobbs to play as well as he did last week – but he’s also a wild card. The play seems to be on the stability of the Saints especially when Minnesota is just 1-3 at home this season.
Free Pick: Saints -2.5